Nigeria v Argentina: South Americans to lay down a marker

Messi must wonder when his team mates will turn up

With Argentina already through and Nigeria needing only a point to secure qualification, can the Africans earn at least a draw? Paul Robinson doesn't think so...

Nigeria v Argentina
Wednesday June 25, 17:00 BST
Live on ITV1

Nigeria surprised many - myself included - by beating Bosnia on Saturday and that result has put them on the brink of the last 16. They are guaranteed a place in the knockout stage if they draw or win here, but if Iran fail to take all three points from their game, they will go through with any result.

Stephen Keshi's side were much improved - especially in the forward areas - in their second match, although they did ride their luck at times. They are a much better team when not having to force the pace of the game as they excel on the break and have a defence that can soak up plenty of pressure.

It's pretty safe to assume that we'll see similar tactics adopted by the Super Eagles given Argentina's attacking prowess and while their defence will have to be on top form to repel some of the best forwards in the world, the likes of Peter Odemwingie and Emmanuel Emenike could have some success at the other end.

It took a late, late Lionel Messi strike to save Argentina's blushes against Iran on Saturday and while that result booked their place in the last 16, the performance wouldn't have exactly sent shivers down the spine of their potential opponents.

Only a draw is needed for Alejandro Sabella's men to top the group and that is almost vital given that France lie in the wait for the runners-up. Ecuador or Switzerland would make for a much easier game so don't expect the manager to put out a weakened XI.

Skipper and best player, Messi, has come to the party in this World Cup so far but his strike partners, Aguero and Higuain, are still to join him. The pressure is now on them to grab a goal or two and given their pedigree, it should be a case of sooner rather later.

Match Odds
Nigeria 9.08/1 Argentina 1.574/7 The Draw 3.9n/a

I have no doubt that the draw will be a relatively popular bet in this market as the result suits both teams. I'm not so sure though as Argentina will want to put down a marker after two relatively lacklustre performances - and if news filters through that Iran have gone behind, Nigeria won't be as motivated to defend for their lives.

The price on offer for an Argentina win is very tempting and if the market carries on going the way it's going, the odds will be even bigger in the run up to the game.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.021/1 Under 2.5 Goals 1.9720/21

The fact that Over 2.5 goals is odds-against genuinely surprises me here. It's a nice surprise though as it offers us a fantastic opportunity to get stuck in and double our money. 

Forget the recent scorelines of the respective nations, this is going to be a game of goals. Argentina simply have to click at some point, yet they look shaky in defence. Iran spurned a couple of good chances against them and Nigeria have plenty more firepower than them.

Correct Score  

Given that I've recommended bets of Argentina to win and Over 2.5 goals, it's not too much of a shock where I think the value lies in the Correct Score Market. I toyed between 1-2 and 1-3 to Argentina - and even dutching them - but in the end I've decided to be brave and go for 1-3. 

It's trading at around the 16.5n/a mark and that price is simply too good to refuse. 

Cash Out   

The best cash out opportunity lies in the goal markets for me and I would be keen to have some pre-match investment on Over 4.5 goals at 7.06/1. I'm not suggesting that the game will feature five goals, but the selection should trade much shorter in running, giving us a chance to lock in a decent profit.

Recommended Bets
Back Argentina @ 1.574/7 (2pts)
Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9620/21 (2pts)
Back a 1-3 Correct Score @ 16.5n/a (1pt)

Best Cash Out
Back Over 4.5 goals @ 7.06/1 

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 15 pts
Returned: 20.01 pts
P/L: +5.01 pts