Uruguay v England: Goals galore in make-or-break clash

Luis Suarez is back in training, but is he fully fit?

After making a big profit from England's defeat to Italy, Dave Farrar's looking for more winners as Roy Hodgson's men take on Uruguay in a game that could define their World Cup...

Uruguay v England
Thursday June 19, 20:00
Live on ITV 1

Match Odds: Uruguay 3.65n/a, England 2.245/4, the draw 3.55/2

So, it's come to this for both England and Uruguay. After defeats in their opening games, another here will almost certainly send either team home, while victory will give renewed hope, particularly to England fans.

It's clear that England were more impressive in their opening game. I think that they deserved to lose to Italy, and that a little too much has been made of the style in which they played, but Uruguay were so abject against Costa Rica that England fans can clearly be hopeful here.

The big question with regard to Uruguay is whether they'll be markedly better with Luis Suarez in the team, and whether he'll be fit enough to make a big impact. If Suarez is OK, then Uruguay look big for the victory at 3.65n/a, if the same team turns up that was battered by Costa Rica, then I'd be with England, even at 2.245/4.

Remember that it's not just about domestic form with Suarez: he was the top scorer in the CONMEBOL qualifiers, and had more shots on target in the last World Cup than any other player. His presence or otherwise is arguably more important than that of anyone else at the tournament. It's such a variable, though, that I can't with any certainty or honesty tip either team on this particular day. It's a game in which I'd rather watch and wait.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

The market in which I am confident, though, is the Over/Under 2.5 goals. Overs is currently trading at 2.166/5, which given the defensive frailties that were on view in both Group D openers, is just too big, and I'm also happy to get with Over 3.5 goals at 3.953/1.

Uruguay's last five games at the World Cup have averaged 3.8 goals per game, and with both teams scoring in six of the last 10 meetings between the countries, this feels like a game that will produce goals. Sometimes those feelings can be misleading, but on this occasion I don't think that they are.

Corners

There's an obvious angle here to be taken with corner kicks. England averaged more corners per game (9.8) than any other team in the European World Cup qualifiers, and won nine against Italy. With Uruguay needing to win the game, and likely to attack from out wide, 13 or more corners has to be a play at 2.568/5, even given the absence of Maxi Pereira, who gives Uruguay so much value from wide areas.

To Score

In terms of the likeliest goalscorers, Diego Godin came desperately close to giving this column a big-priced winner against Costa Rica, having what would have been an opening goal ruled out for offside. I'm sticking with him, as I don't think England defend set-pieces particularly well, and he will take advantage of any weaknesses. He's backable at 13.5n/a.

For the same reason, Uruguay will be vulnerable to well-constructed England set pieces (did you see the way that they failed so abjectly against Costa Rica in that department?), and so I'll stick with Gary Cahill as a decent bet to score for England at any time at 14.5n/a. I make no apologies for putting up the same anytime goalscorers for a second time. They were my honestly-held opinions for the first matches, and I saw nothing to change my mind.

Finally, if you're looking for a trading option, then you may want to look at the second half intently. Only four of England's last 20 World Cup goals have been scored after half-time, while 12 of 18 of Uruguay's have come in the second half. This is quick starter against slow starter, and if England are ahead after 45 minutes, then we may be able to back Uruguay at a fancy price in running.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.166/5
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.953/1
Back 13 Corners or more @ 2.568/5
Back Diego Godin to score @ 13.5n/a
Back Gary Cahill to score @ 14.5n/a

2014 World Cup P/L

Points Staked: 7

Points Returned: 11.9

P/L: +4.9 points