Iran v Nigeria: Defences to come out on top in Curitiba

Carlos Queiroz has his team well drilled in the art of defending

Two of the more defensively focused nations of the tournament face each other in Group F and Paul Robinson thinks the attackers will struggle to make an impact as Iran take on Nigeria.

Iran v Nigeria
Monday June 16, 20:00 BST
Live on BBC One

Iran came through the Asian section of qualifying to earn the right to play in their first World Cup since Germany 2006. They were knocked out in the first round on that occasion - one draw and two defeats - but they have a better team now. Unfortunately for them though, they have been drawn in a group that contains both Argentina and Bosnia, so they face an uphill task to make the last 16.

If Carlos Queiroz's side have any chance of finishing in the top two, they have to begin with a victory over Nigeria. They won their last warm-up friendly against Trinidad and Tobago, but prior to that they had gone four without victory. Scoring goals is the issue for them as while they topped their group in final qualifying, they netted just eight times in eight games.

The former Portugal manager sets his team up to defend and I don't expect him to deviate from that plan for this match. Queiroz does what he has to do to get results and their 4-2-3-1 formation, with little onus on attack, reverts to a 4-4-1-1 when they don't have the ball. Pressing high up the field will be little to non-existent and they will  be happy for their opponents to come on to them. The problem will of course come if/when they concede the first goal.

Nigeria will have their sights set on making the knockout phase in a World Cup for the first time since USA 94, but as already mentioned, with Argentina and Bosnia to play, it's not going to be easy. They haven't enjoyed a good preparation either as they lost their final warm-up friendly to the US and prior to that they were held by both Scotland and Greece.

The Super Eagles are another side who put their emphasis on defence and they are set up to play on the break in a 4-3-3 formation. That style won't help them here though and the onus will be on them to do the majority of the attacking. There is no questioning the defensive side of their game - four clean sheets from their last six fixtures - and they are adept at keeping it tight when it matters, but they do struggle at the other end.

Emmanuel Emenike is the man they rely on to get the goals and the Fenerbache striker was actually their top scorer during qualifying despite only playing the final three games. Victor Moses and Ahmed Musa will provide the creativity but they aren't exactly world class.

Match Odds
Iran 3.9n/a Nigeria 2.265/4 The Draw 3.259/4

This is quite a tight market with Stephen Keshi's men being the marginal favourites. I just can't see where the goals are going to come from though - for either side - and despite this World Cup being full of goals thus far, I doubt this game will follow suit.

The value has to be in the draw for me and while that result won't suit either team, I expect a cagey affair with a lack of quality in the forward areas.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 2.68/5 Under 2.5 Goals 1.68/13

It's no surprise that Under 2.5 goals is the favourite for this market as just about all the stats are pointing that way. Iran's last eight scorelines in qualifying were 0-1, 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 0-1, 0-1, 4-0 and 0-1, and in their warm up friendlies they drew 0-0 with both Belarus and Montenegro, 1-1 with Angola, before finally winning 2-0 against Trinidad and Tobago.

It's a similar story for the Nigerians as seven of their eight matches in qualifying went under 2.5 goals, as did two of their last four friendlies - both of which finished 0-0.

Half Time Score   

Another bet that interests me is for the game to be goalless at half time. A 0-0 half time score can be backed at around the 2.56/4 mark and that looks like a steal. This should be a pretty tight match-up, and even if does spring into life, I'd imagine that it will be a slow burner.

Cash Out    

Following the trend of my selections so far, the best cash out opportunity looks to be in the Correct Score market. 0-0 is trading at around the 8.415/2 mark, and if the game is scoreless for a long time as expected, the odds will just continue to get shorter and shorter.

Recommended Bets

Back The Draw @ 3.259/4 1pt
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.68/13 2pts
Back a 0-0 Half Time Score @ 2.56/4 1pt

Best Cash Out
Back a 0-0 Correct Score @ 8.415/2