Italy v Costa Rica: Expect goals yet again, with Candreva the one to watch

Italy's Antonio Candreva gave England a torrid time

Our Serie A expert Dave Farrar successfully predicted that Claudio Marchisio would score against England, and he expects Antonio Candreva to do the business against Costa Rica in an entertaining match...

Italy v Costa Rica
Friday June 20, 17:00
Live on BBC 1

Match Odds: Italy 1.558/15, Costa Rica 8.27/1, the draw 4.3100/30

Italy and Costa Rica are sitting pretty in Group D, and one of the most interesting things about the underdogs' approach here is what they think they need from this game. After dealing with Uruguay so comprehensively, do they feel that they can claim another big scalp? Or does a team that had an outstanding defensive record in qualifying satisfy itself with aiming for a point and leaving themselves needing maybe just a draw from their match against England to qualify?

Italy have a record in recent years of playing well at the start of a tournament, and then looking undercooked in their second game. Given that Costa Rica will approach the match with similar energy to England, but without their quality, a natural feeling is that Italy will dominate here as they did in Manaus, and justify a pre match price of 1.558/15.

That's a little short for me, although it would be the Match Odds price that I'd take if pushed, as I can't have Costa Rica at 8.27/1 or the draw at 4.3100/30. It's a market to leave alone though, as Italy are justifiable favourites, whatever Costa Rica's approach may be.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

As so often during this tournament, though, it's this market which makes most appeal. I may sound like a broken record, but so too has been the buzz of this tournament, a feast of goals with only the very odd exception to dissuade us. Over 2.5 Goals is trading at 2.111/10 here, and given the nature of both teams' openers, it's hard to say that isn't value.

Costa Rica may be cautious here, but on the balance of probability I doubt it, and the art of Bryan Ruiz and particularly the pace of Joel Campbell could well cause Italy problems. On one occasion they were undone by England's speedy approach, but there were other instances of them defending on the stretch and looking decidedly vulnerable. Andrea Barzagli was immense, and the injury cloud hanging over him is a serious Italian worry.

I think that Costa Rica will score, but such is Italy's forcefulness in forward areas, that the Azzurri can emerge with a win. A 2-1 and 3-1 Correct Score bet is worth a look, but I'll settle for odds against on Over 2.5 Goals.

To Score

Claudio Marchisio obliged by scoring against England, but given Antonio Candreva's driving performance from a position just in behind Mario Balotelli, I'm surprised to see him as big as 5.39/2 to score at any time against Costa Rica.

Candreva is renowned as a scorer of pile-drivers, but also has the ability to finish from close range like a striker, and so he gives us a couple of options. I thought that Costa Rica looked a little vulnerable down the left-hand side of their defence, and Candreva is the man to exploit that weakness should it rear its head again.

I'd have a look at one of the Costa Rican centre-halves to score at any time as well, as their set-pieces looked imaginative and well crafted, but Campbell is the likeliest man to trouble Italy, and if he's available at around the 4.57/2 mark to score at any time, then he is worth a second look. I'll stick with Candreva, though.

World Cup Winner

I can't find an edge in the Corners and Cards markets, although both look like they'll make up on the short side, and it's similarly difficult to find a trading position for this one. The only possible one that I can see is in the World Cup winner market.

With Spain's demise, focus will fall onto the nation that's helped by their passing and also which contains a playmaker in Andrea Pirlo who's not the busted flush that Xavi has become, and that Andres Iniesta looked. Another impressive performance from Italy, another controlled display by Pirlo, will lead to talk that he could produce once again at a major tournament. Italy are currently trading at 18.5n/a to win the World Cup, and now may just be the time to back them.

Recommended Bets

Back Over 2.5 Goals at 2.111/10
Back Antonio Candreva to score at 5.39/2

2014 World Cup P/L

Points Staked: 7

Points Returned: 11.9

P/L: +4.9 points