Colombia v Ivory Coast: Rodriguez to make the difference for Los Cafeteros

James Rodriguez is the key attacking threat for Colombia

Andrew Atherley believes impressive Colombia can secure another victory to keep them in control of Group C...

Colombia v Ivory Coast
Thursday June 19, 17:00
Live on BBC1

Colombia

Jose Pekerman's dark horses made light of star striker Radamel Falcao's absence in their opening 3-0 win over Greece, with the goals coming from all areas of the team (defender Pablo Armero, striker Teofilo Gutierrez and attacking midfielder James Rodriguez). 

Los Cafeteros looked comfortable from the moment Armero gave them a fifth-minute lead and Rodriguez confirmed his potential as one of the stars of the tournament with a man-of-the-match performance (just one of his impressive stats was that he made more than a quarter of Colombia's passes/runs into the attacking third of the pitch).

Ivory Coast

The Elephants came from a goal down to beat Japan 2-1 with a strong second-half performance, scoring twice in three minutes through Wilfried Bony and Gervinho (both headers from crosses by highly rated right-back Serge Aurier).

Didier Drogba was left on the bench in favour of Bony, but his introduction just before the double strike proved significant, if only for the fact that it gave Japan another striker to worry about and perhaps opened more space for Bony and Gervinho.

Match Odds

Stick or twist? That is the dilemma for both teams after their winning starts, as a draw here would keep them in the top two and then for at least one of them another draw in the final group game would put them through. 

Playing safe has not been a characteristic of this World Cup so far, but you have to consider the possibility that both teams might settle for a point - especially if the scores are level in the later stages of the match.

Overall Colombia have more going for them, simply because they have the defensive solidity to go with their attacking threat whereas Ivory Coast continue to look vulnerable at the back (only one clean sheet in 10 matches in the past 12 months).

Under Pekerman, Colombia have won 15 out of 19 when scoring and, with a good chance that they will breach the Ivory Coast defence, that makes them decent value for the win at 2.166/5.

Colombia's victory over Greece was their 10th out of 12 when taking the lead in a competitive match in the past three years (the only team to have beaten them in those circumstances was Argentina), which indicates they will be tough to peg back if they get in front.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

This is hard to call, given the possibility that both teams may play safer than has been the norm so far in the tournament. 

Of course, Ivory Coast's set-up is always going to raise the goals potential as they have had seven out of 10 over 2.5 goals in the past 12 months, but Colombia's better defence pulls in the opposite direction and generally they have been lower scoring without Falcao.

The two teams might feel each other out in a cagey opening and under 2.5 goals looks the best cash out opportunity at 1.875/6. Bear in mind that Colombia's early goal against Greece was a rarity for them - in qualifying, they scored only four times before the half-hour mark - while Opta tell us that seven of Ivory Coast's 11 goals at the World Cup have been scored after the 60th minute of games.

First Goalscorer

Another eye-catching stat about Rodriguez is that he had half of Colombia's shots against Greece, which makes him interesting as First Goalscorer at 8.615/2.

Other factors in his favour are that he is likely to take any penalty and, while his three goals in qualifying was not a particularly high total, he is a game-changer (all three of those goals were Colombia's first in the match).

Rodriguez is the likeliest to provide the flash of inspiration that might decide this match and he looks the pick for punters in search of a longer-priced interest.

Recommended Bet
Back Colombia to win at 2.166/5 (2pts)

Best Cash Out tip
Under 2.5 Goals at 1.875/6 could be a decent trade if the two sides prove risk-averse early on

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 5pts
Returned: 8.64pts
P/L: +3.64pts