Argentina v Iran: South Americans to crack the Iranian defence

Higuain and Messi could run riot

The second round of Group F fixtures are set to be played this weekend and Paul Robinson is looking to build on the 12pts profit he earned from the opening two matches as Argentina take on Iran...

Argentina v Iran
Saturday June 21, 17:00 BST
Live on ITV1

Argentina began their tournament with a 2-1 success over Bosnia and Herzegovina and while they never really clicked into top gear, they will be pleased to have beaten their main group rivals. Gifted the lead in the opening minutes, it was actually Bosnia who looked the better team during the first half. 

Alejandro Sabella made a double change at the break with Gago and Higuain coming on and the Argentines immediately looked better. The former provided a bit of craft in the midfield and the latter allowed Messi to drop deeper and become more involved in the action.

I expect the manager to pick the same team that started the second half and that could spell danger for Iran. Gonzalo Higuain is the perfect foil for Aguero and Messi, and that trio would cause problems for any team, let alone one who are ranked 43rd in the FIFA Rankings.

The Iranians played out a hugely dour contest with Nigeria on Monday in what was probably the worst game of the tournament to date. You can't really blame Carlos Queiroz for his tactics though as he has a very limited pool of talent to work with.

They are a defensively sound unit - highlighted by not only the game against Nigeria, but also by the fact that kept 10 clean sheets in 16 qualifying games. Queiroz's men didn't face a side of Argentina's calibre however and I can't see them being able to hold firm for long.

The problem that Iran will then have is that they will have to start being a bit more adventurous and that will put even more pressure on the back four. The game plan will obviously be to keep the score at 0-0 for as long as possible and maybe nick a goal from a set piece or break, but that's very much a longshot.

Match Odds
Argentina 1.141/7 Iran 30.029/1 The Draw 10.09/1

Unsurprisingly, Argentina are a very short price to get the win but there's little point in backing them at 1.141/7. I'm much keener on the 1.9310/11 on offer for them to win both halves. 

I find it hard to imagine that Iran will score during this match and I'm quite confident that it won't take Argentina long to break them down. The key to winning this bet is the Argentines getting at least 1-0 up by half time as the second half should be a formality. The selection isn't quite a banker, but at near even money, it's certainly value.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Over 2.5 Goals 1.68/13 Under 2.5 Goals 2.6613/8

This market appears to be priced up pretty much spot on as Over 2.5 goals should definitely be the favourite. Argentina will need to score three times though, and at odds of 1.68/13, I'm not prepared to get involved.

To Score

I tipped Gonzalo Higuain to be the tournament top scorer in my Group F preview so you can imagine my annoyance when he promptly injured himself in training. It wasn't as bad as first feared though and he was able to play for 45 minutes against Bosnia.

The Napoli striker set up Lionel Messi for the second goal and it's highly likely he'll be straight back in the starting XI now that he's fit. You can back him to score at any time at around the 1.814/5 mark and with Messi and Aguero buzzing around him, he should get plenty of chances.

Cash Out

With Argentina and Over 2.5 goals being so short in the betting, it's hard to find a market where there could be a decent margin for a cash out. The best one probably comes in the Correct Score market as 'Any Unquoted' is trading at around the 3.259/4 mark. That basically means we need Argentina to score four times, and if they get a couple by half time, the 'Any Unquoted' will be much, much shorter.

Recommended Bets
Back Argentina to win both halves @ 1.9310/11 (2pts)
Back Gonzalo Higuain to score any time @ 1.814/5 (1pt)

Best Cash Out
Back an 'Any Unquoted' Correct Score @ 3.259/4

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 8 pts
Returned: 20.01 pts
P/L: +12.01 pts