Wimbledon 2014: Kind draw can help Murray to title defence

Sean expects Andy Murray to retain his Wimbledon title

After tipping Andy Murray to land his first Wimbledon crown last year, tennis expert Sean Calvert believes Murray has the draw to defend his title when the grass court major begins again on Monday...

The eyes of the world fall upon the finely manicured lawns of the All England Club for a fortnight of world-class tennis at The Championships Wimbledon 2014.

The draw has been made this morning and it does appear to have handed Andy Murray a fine chance of retaining his men's singles crown in two weeks' time.

Of the betting favourites all are under question heading into this tournament, with Novak Djokovic under a fitness and health cloud and not a natural on grass, while Rafa Nadal is far from his best on grass, Murray hasn't looked 100 percent fit since his operation and Roger Federer is very up and down these days.

To expand on that Djokovic pulled out of his grass knockabout at The Boodles a couple of days ago and I've never really seen his lack of grass warm-up events as a show of intent ahead of Wimbledon, despite tipping him when he did win it in 2011 on these pages.

Of course, he made the final here last year, but was never much of a threat to Murray and he is likely to have somewhat of a hangover from his failure to land the one slam missing from his title haul in Paris a few weeks ago.

In Novak's favour is a decent draw that will probably see him face Sam Querrey or Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in the fourth round after a likely clash with Radek Stepanek in round two.

It's hard to see him losing those and a quarter final against Tomas Berdych will likely follow in a repeat of their last eight clash a year ago that Novak won pretty comfortably.

But that could be that for Djokovic, as Murray is set to await in the semi finals after benefitting from a draw that for me only has Grigor Dimitrov has a threat to a last four spot for the Brit.

David Ferrer has had no grass practice at all due to a stomach problem and is held by Murray on grass anyway and we may even see someone like Marcos Baghdatis come through the Ferrer section to meet Murray in the last eight.

Opponents of the calibre of David Goffin, Kevin Anderson and Fabio Fognini shouldn't concern Andy too much and it would be hugely disappointing if he fell early this year.

The third section of the draw features the two Swiss hopes and I think we can count Stan Wawrinka out after an illness that saw him reportedly hospitalized last week and in any case his form on grass has not been up to much and certainly not enough to win here.

Federer is an interesting proposition this time around and he has a good shot of the semi finals in that Wawrinka section, but he's no certainty having made just one major semi in his last five grand slams.

The Swiss maestro is vulnerable these days and he hardly impressed in Halle, with a 7-6, 7-6 title win over Alejandro Falla in his warm-up.

Others in that section who may prove better value on a back-to-lay basis include Feli Lopez at 250249/1, but Jerzy Janowicz has his work cut out defending semi final points from last year after a dreadful season so far.

Fed's shock loss to Sergiy Stakhovsky here last year is a reminder to all about the soon to be 33-year-old's decline and I don't see any value in him at 7.87/1.

Nadal is always an intriguing prospect here and my thoughts on him are that he won't be at his peak after another mentally and physically draining French Open win, during which he was intermittently moaning about his back.

His draw looks about the toughest of all the favourites too, with the likes of Kei Nishikori, Lukas Rosol, Ivo Karlovic, Gael Monfils, Richard Gasquet, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and maybe Milos Raonic all capable of giving him a stern test.

This year's Steve Darcis impersonator is Martin Klizan, who shouldn't pose too many problems on grass, but Ivo may be a test and 6.611/2 looks on the short side for me, mainly due to what I perceive as this tournament not being a major goal for him this season.

Next year when the grass swing is longer may be better for the Spaniard and I don't see Raonic as a contender, with the Canadian looking to me like his game is very much ill suited to grass.

The huge swipes that Milos takes at the ball are the opposite of what's required and you need more than a big serve to make the Wimbledon final these days.

Looking at the draw and at the prices it's hard to make much of a case for the outsiders: Ernests Gulbis and Raonic have shown nothing on grass this year or previously, while Nishikori's body simply isn't up to a fortnight of best of five set tennis.

Similarly, Dimitrov has it all to prove in a major, but despite looking like he's getting closer, his price is too short for my liking, while Berdych is unlikely to beat Novak, Tsonga is on the slide, which leaves us with grass-loving Lopez as about the best outsider.

After tipping Murray to win last year I'm not quite as confident this year, but much of that is due to concerns over his fitness and the draw has boosted the appeal considerably and at 5.24/1 I think he has to be the call.

Much has been made of the appointment of Amelie Mauresmo as coach to Murray and quite honestly I'm not too sure what she brings to the table, but Andy tends to get the right team around him and I don't see it as a negative.

I don't see his loss to Stepanek at Queen's as a major issue either after a great run to the semis on unsuitable clay that must have taken a lot out of him and he should be in the right shape for this fortnight.

I expect Andy and Novak to meet in the semis and for me Murray can beat him again and go on to retain his Wimbledon crown.

Recommended Bet
Back Murray at 5.24/1