Netherlands v Chile: Underdogs can put the heat on Europeans

Chile will reach the summit of Group B with a win in Sao Paulo on Monday evening

Without Robin van Persie, the favourites to win Group B could struggle to keep pace with their South American rivals, says Tobias Gourlay...

Netherlands v Chile
Monday June 23 17:00
Live on ITV

Match Odds

In the battle to top Group B and thus probably avoid Brazil in the Last 16, the Netherlands (2.6813/8) are in pole position. Their superior goal difference means a draw (3.55n/a) is enough to keep them ahead of Chile (2.8815/8), who have also won both of their first two games.

The Chileans will go all out for the win and that suits them just fine. If Arturo Vidal is good to go once more, Jorge Sampaoli will send out a familiar team in a familiar back-three system.

The fallout from the Netherlands' last game hits Louis van Gaal harder. Robin van Persie, who has been scoring a goal a game in internationals recently, is suspended, which probably means a start for Klaas-Jan Huntelaar.

At the other end, Bruno Martins Indi was concussed against Australia. His absence could encourage Van Gaal to switch to a back-four. Perhaps that will solidify a defence that looked fragile against both Spain and Australia.

The Dutch have conceded at least once in 9/10 internationals on foreign soil (excluding a 2-0 win over Andorra). Since the start of last year, Chile have scored at least twice in 17/20 internationals. Those two scoring records cast doubt on the Dutchmen's status as favourites - all the more so because Van Persie will not be around to keep pace with Vargas, Sanchez and friends.

Draw No Bet

Take advantage of Chile's status as slight underdogs by backing them at odds-against prices in the Draw No Bet market. If the game is drawn, your stake is returned.

Over / Under 2.5 Goals

The third round of group games tends to be the highest scoring: since 1990 there have been 2.63 per game.

Over 2.5 Goals is the favourite here, but we're surprised to see it as long as 1.855/6. Since the 2010 World Cup, 15/22 competitive games featuring Chile have gone that way and so have 18/25 such matches involving the Dutch.

With the draw on their side, there's a chance the Netherlands will sit back a little more than in previous outings, but there are big enough questions around their defence to raise a bet on Over 2.5 Goals once more.

Best Cash Out Opportunity

Chile have found the back of the net five times in Brazil so far. They have struck four times before half-time and only once afterwards, which tallies with the idea of a fast-starting, high-tempo side that can tire quickly in the second half.

In the cooler south of the country, Sao Paulo is not the worst place they could be playing, but the Dutch are on eight tournament goals already. Six of those eight have come after half-time. If you back Chile ante-post and they're ahead at half-time, the second half could be a lot easier to watch if you've already taken the money.

Best Bet
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.855/6

Recommended Bet
Back Chile Draw No Bet @ 2.0811/10

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 8pts
Returned: 17.76pts
P/L: +9.76pts