Honduras v Ecuador: Goals the smart bet as South Americans look set to claim their first win

Enner Valencia will be the danger man leading the Ecuador attack

Ecuador have the quality to record their first win of the tournament, says James Eastham...

Honduras v Ecuador
Friday 20 June, 23:00 BST
Live on ITV1

Match Odds
Honduras 5.85/1, Ecuador 1.684/6, The Draw 4.1n/a

What did we learn about these two teams in their opening games? That Honduras are uncompromisingly aggressive but limited, and that Ecuador are hard-working, well-organised and a generally better team than Honduras. Ecuador certainly looked the more dangerous of the two going forward, so the 1.684/6 on the South Americans collecting all three points will attract plenty of attention.

I wouldn't talk anybody out of backing Ecuador, but there are arguably better ways of making them pay than merely backing them on the Match Odds market. See the Asian Handicap section below for a potentially more profitable way to make money from an Ecuador win.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Overs 1.9110/11, Unders 2.0421/20

This game is essentially sudden death for these two sides - after defeats in their opening matches both teams know that anything other than a win here spells extremely bad news. Generally speaking you'd expect a winners-takes-all scenario to lead to an open match with chances at both ends, and this game should certainly fall into that category (especially as the weather should be fairly cool by the time it kicks-off).

There are other reasons to believe there'll be goals in this game, too, the main one being the way the two sides defended in their first matches. Honduras struggled to contain France, and looked so vulnerable they are also likely to wobble against weaker opposition. Meanwhile, Ecuador were lucky to concede only twice against Swtizerland in a game that highlighted the defensive shortcomings that have been obvious in Ecuador's play all year (they conceded nine times in four friendlies in the run-up to Brazil). Put it all together, and I'd rather be on Overs than Unders.

Both Teams to Score

For the same reasons mentioned in the Under/Over 2.5 Goals category above, 'Yes' in the Both Teams to Score category is a good selection on this game. At some point both teams will need to play to win if they want a realistic chance of staying in this competition so I expect a fairly attack-minded approach from both sets of players. Defensively both teams struggled in their opening games so the chances of both teams conceding appear pretty good. Yes, you have to accept an odds-on price, but considering this game is essentially a battle to the death to stay in the World Cup, I'm willing to take the price on offer.

Asian Handicap

If the 1.684/6 on Ecuador winning the game is too short for you, then instead have a look at Ecuador on the Asian Handicap. At around 1.910/11, you can back them -0.5&-1.0. With this wager, half your stakes go on Ecuador to win with a -0.5-goal start and the other half on Ecuador with a -1.0-goal start. You'll make a certain amount of profit if Ecuador win by one goal and an even bigger profit if they win by two goals or more (for more information about Asian Handicap betting, click here).

Alternatively you can back Ecuador -1.0 Asian Handicap at bigger odds: to make money with this, you would need Ecuador to win by two or more goals.

Cash Out Opportunity

Ecuador will want to take control of the game from kick-off so I would expect them to start strongly, as they did against Switzerland. By backing Over 2.5 Goals at an odds-against price pre-kick-off you should get chances to lay off for a profit if there is an early goal.

Best Bet
Both Teams to Score @ 1.855/6

Other Recommended Bet
Ecuador -0.5&-1.0 Asian Handicap @ 1.910/11

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked: 4pts
Returned: 9.6pts
P/L: +5.6pts