Greece v Ivory Coast: Elephants to turn on late power against struggling Greeks

Ivory Coast should be celebrating qualification after their match against Greece

Andrew Atherley expects Ivory Coast to qualify from Group C in style with a victory but reckons they might be prepared to wait...

Greece v Ivory Coast
Tuesday June 24, 21:00
Live on BBC1

Greece
Remarkably, Greece are still in with a chance of qualifying from Group C despite failing to score a goal in their first two games. But they need to win here at least - and, if Japan beat Colombia, make up a two-goal deficit on goal difference with the Blue Samurai.

Fernando Santos tried to pep up his attack for the second game against Japan, bringing in Kostas Mitroglou and Ioannis Fetfatzidis, but defence was the only option when they were reduced to 10 men just before half-time.

Kostas Katsouranis is suspended after his dismissal, with Giorgios Karagounis set to go into central midfield. Santos could also bring back Theofanis Gekas and Dimitrios Salpingidis in place of Mitroglou and Fetfatzidis.

Ivory Coast
Ivory Coast are a win (perhaps only a point) from qualification but there is a cloud over the team following the death of Ibrahim Toure, younger brother of Yaya and Kolo. Both have stayed with the squad but their mental readiness for such a big game is in question.

Until now Ivory Coast have had a settled side (the only change for the second match was that Max Gradel replaced Salomon Kalou) but one change is enforced, with Didier Zokora suspended after picking up two yellow cards. The obvious replacement in central defence is Kolo Toure, if he is ready to play.

Match Odds
All of Ivory Coast's defeats at World Cup finals have been against high-ranked teams (Brazil, Argentina, Holland and now Colombia) - and so has their solitary draw, against Portugal - and otherwise they have won three out of three (against Serbia, North Korea and this year Japan).

That indicates a good win chance here against the struggling Greeks, especially because Ivory Coast are rarely shut out. They have scored in their last 27 internationals, going back just over two years, and have lost only six of those games (W14 D7 L6) despite their tendency to concede goals themselves.

Greece, as always, will depend on a clean sheet but Ivory Coast's figures (as well as Greece's own problems) make that unlikely. While Greece have kept only one clean sheet in eight attempts at World Cup finals, as well as failing to score in seven out of eight games, Ivory Coast have scored in seven of their eight World Cup matches despite often facing strong opposition.

What punters really have to weigh up here is whether Ivory Coast will be going all out for the win from the start, as they know a draw is enough if Japan don't beat Colombia.

With that in mind, and with Greece hardly a team for all-out attack, the draw could be the best cash out opportunity at 3.55n/a, as the match might liven up only if events make it imperative as time runs out.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The goals potential is hard to assess, as it might all depend on if or when Ivory Coast have to go in search of goals. At the outset they don't need to score and that will change only if Greece or Japan (against Colombia) go into the lead.

In normal circumstances Ivory Coast's tendency is towards high-scoring games, with eight out of 11 over 2.5 goals in the past 12 months, but the scenario here and Greece's figures (10 out of 13 under 2.5 goals in the past 12 months) mean under 2.5 goals is worth considering at 1.84/5.

But the risk is that changing circumstances could lead to an unexpectedly high-scoring game.

Half Time/Full Time
In a tricky match there might be a decent opportunity in backing Draw/Ivory Coast at 5.49/2 on the Half Time/Full Time.

Ivory Coast are fancied to win but they might play a waiting game to start with and be happy to go in level at half-time. But then Greece would have to attack in the second half in search of a win, which could leave holes for Ivory Coast to exploit. 

Bear in mind also that Ivory Coast have been stronger in the second half of matches in this World Cup, as well as previous ones, with eight of their 12 goals at World Cup finals coming after the 60th minute.

Recommended Bet
Back Draw/Ivory Coast on Half Time/Full Time at 5.49/2 (1pt)

Best Cash Out tip
Back the Draw at 3.55n/a as this could have a cagey opening

World Cup 2014 P/L

Staked 9pts
Returned 14.96pts
Profit +5.96pts