Belgium v Russia: Red Devils can ensure qualification with win

Kevin de Bruyne should be moved back to his favoured no.10 position

After a disappointing start to Group H, Evan Bartlett is predicting a more open game between the two group favourites and fancies a goal or three as Belgium show what they're really made of...

Belgium v Russia
Sunday Jun 22, 17:00
Live on BBC1 

Match Odds
Belgium 2.021/1, Russia 4.1n/a, Draw 3.65n/a

Underwhelming is the word I would choose to describe the opening fixtures of Group H. The much-hyped golden generation of Belgium were given a stern test by an underrated Algeria and had to resort to a more direct approach (aka Marouane Fellaini) to come from behind and claim victory. 

Fabio Capello's Russia, on the other hand, limped to a 1-1 draw against South Korea so really cannot afford to lose this game. Even a draw would mean their fate could well rely on other results. They probably edged the game against South Korea (which is quite damning to the Koreans) but Igor Akinfeev's goalkeeping howler summed up what was a distinctly average game.

With Russia needing the three points, they will have to offer a more attacking approach than they did against South Korea. I would expect Aleksandr Kerzhakov and Alan Dzagoev to be at the forefront of Capello's mind, such was their impact when coming off the bench in the last game. 

With both teams striving for victory and with Belgium having slightly more realistic expectations after their difficult opening match, I would expect the Belgians to edge this one and 2.021/1 seems to be about right.

Over/Under 2.5 goals
Over 2.26/5, Under 1.784/5

With Russia unable to afford another poor result they will need to adopt a more attacking approach - as painful for Fabio Capello as that may be. That may well leave them more open at the back, particularly if a more defensively-minded midfielder is sacrificed for Dzagoev or Kerzhakov.

The Red Devils should also loosen up a bit for their second game and I would expect Kevin de Bruyne to be moved back to his favoured number 10 role, a position he thrived in after a tactical switch from coach Marc Wilmots midway through the second half of the Algeria game. That means odds of 2.26/5 on over 2.5 goals look generous - particularly in this goal-frenzied tournament.

Cash Out Opportunity

It is worth noting that despite their troubles in the final third against Algeria, the Red Devils did manage to restrict the North Africans to a single shot on target - such is their defensive solidity. And with Thibaut Courtois in hot form between the posts, it could be a good strategy to back a Belgium clean sheet at odds of 2.6413/8 before kick-off and to cash out at some point in the first-half for a small profit.

To score

Eden Hazard was described as one of the top five players in the world by coach Marc Wilmots this week. Although the Chelsea winger played down the praise there is no doubt it will have been good to hear his coach talk about him in such high regard. With that confidence booster and the fact that Russia's defence, although big and strong, look culpable to pace, backing Hazard to get on the scoresheet at 3.02/1 looks a good bet.

Recommended Bets

Belgium to win @ 2.021/1
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.26/5
Eden Hazard to score @ 3.02/1

Follow Evan on Twitter @ev_bartlett

World Cup 2014 P/L
Staked: 6 pts
Returned: 0 pts
P/L: -6 pts