Against All Odds: Russian defence to be embarrassed

Will the Belgium fans see their team go far?

The World Cup rolls on today and Paul Robinson thinks that there's plenty of value in opposing under 2.5 goals for the Group H clash between Belgium and Russia.

Belgium v Russia
Sunday June 22, 17:00 BST
Live on BBC One

Rated as one of the lively outsiders for World Cup glory, Belgium looked far from fantastic in their opening game as they had to come from behind to finally beat Algeria 2-1. It took a change in approach from manager, Marc Wilmots, as he brought on Marouane Fellaini and went for a more direct style. The Manchester United midfielder provided the equaliser in the 70th minute before Dries Mertens sealed the comeback win 10 minutes later.

It's likely that The Red Devils will begin the match with their usual, passing style and that could prove more effective against Russia than it was in the Algeria game. The Russians have a decent defensive record but they do lack pace at the back and the tricky interplay of Eden Hazard and Kevin De Bruyne could well catch them out.

Russia would have been hoping to get off to a winning start but they underperformed in the heat-sapping climate of Cuiaba against South Korea. The final score was 1-1, so not a total disaster, but if they get beaten by the group favourites this evening, they will be relying on other results to qualify.

Fabio Capello is renowned for his cautious style of play and I expect that to be no different here. Alexander Kerzhakov and Alan Dzagoev may have earned recalls following their displays from the bench on Tuesday, but I wouldn't imagine that it would be at the expense of more defensive players.

The Russians look vulnerable to me and while they have a goal in their locker, I can see the young Belgian attackers leaving the Russia defenders looking like statues. All things considered, with under 2.5 goals trading as low as 1.664/6, I have to make it my lay of the day.      

Recommended Bet
Lay Under 2.5 goals in Belgium v Russia @ 1.664/6 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 169 pts
Returned: 184.97 pts
P/L: + 15.97 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)