Against All Odds: Japan and Greece to keep it low

The Greek fans don't get to celebrate many goals

It's World Cup action for Paul Robinson tonight as he thinks the match between Japan and Greece will be a drab affair.

Japan v Greece
Thursday June 19, 23:00 BST
Live on BBC One

Japan opened up their World Cup campaign with a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Ivory Coast. They actually led 1-0 but thanks to the concession of two goals in as many second half minutes, they didn't pick up any points. Tonight is pretty much a must win match for them, but even so, with Colombia to come, their chances of progression look slim.

It's the goal-side of things we're focusing on though and while Alberto Zaccheroni's men are usually involved in high-scoring affairs, there are reasons to believe that this match could be different. 

Their opponents, Greece, are notorious for games that finish with under 2.5, under 1.5 and even under 0.5 goals. They may have lost their opener 3-0 at the hands of Colombia, but I'd class that as the exception and not the rule. 

Fernando Santos' side are defensively sound and they will approach this match with the view to keep a clean sheet and nick a goal at the other end. Due to their lack of firepower, conceding goals isn't much of an option for them and that was highlighted in qualifying as they only conceded four times in 10 fixtures, while scoring just 12 themselves.

There seems to be decent value in opposing over 1.5 goals in this match at the prices. I though the odds would be much bigger, so with it trading as low as 1.422/5, I have to make it my lay of the day.   

Recommended Bet
Lay Over 1.5 goals in Japan v Greece @ 1.422/5 

2014 P/L (1pt each bet)

Wagered: 166 pts
Returned: 179.35 pts
P/L: + 13.35 pts (after commission)
(2013 P/L: + 3.80 pts)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)