Shanghai Masters Betting: Murray-Djokovic final will go down to the wire

Can Murray get the better of Djokovic again?

Andy Murray is going for a hat-trick of Shanghai Masters titles on Sunday morning when he takes on Novak Djokovic and Sean Calvert expects this one to go all the way...

Sunday is finals day at the Shanghai Rolex Masters and Britain's Andy Murray is going for his third straight title win in this tournament.

Murray scuppered my bet yesterday by beating a very much below par Roger Federer and he'll face Novak Djokovic at around 9.30 am UK time on Sunday in the championship match.

Federer never really got to grips with either his own game or that of Murray in the semi final and was disappointing, both on serve and return of serve where he was found particularly wanting.

Three consecutive double faults in one service game summed up the world number one's day and despite the pair producing one memorable rally it was far from the classic that we had hoped for.

Earlier in the day, Djokovic had ended my final outright hope by beating Tomas Berdych, but at least Berdych and Tommy Haas made for decent back to lay investments.

So, it's the 16th meeting between Murray and Djokovic and as the career record which reads 8-7 to the Serb alludes to it is another difficult match to call.

I would have to say that the outright value lies with Murray at a price of 2.526/4, as he doesn't seem to be affected much by the cold he's been carrying all week and he has had the beating of Nole in the last two meetings.

Clearly, Djokovic will be desperate to land this title and perhaps more importantly to defeat Murray after losses to the Scot in New York and at Wimbledon, but 1.654/6 looks a bit low to me.

It is probably the case that Novak has been the most impressive player on show this week in Shanghai, but Murray seems to have the bit between his teeth at the moment and will be equally determined to show that his US Open win was no fluke.

I think that Djokovic would be more comfortable on a slightly slower surface and although he may well walk away with the title on Sunday I don't think that he represents fantastic value at 1.654/6.

The set betting of 2-1 to either player looks better to me, although of their 11 completed career three sets meetings only two have gone into a deciding set, but that stat looks set to be changed today.

I can't see this one ending in a straight sets win for either player unless one has a really bad day and the 5.49/2 about a Murray 2-1 win is certainly tempting and worth chancing for those who fancy a big priced bet today.

Another interesting stat to note is that the player who wins the first set has gone on to win the match in 14 of the 15 matches played between the pair - the only exception being their first encounter in Madrid back in 2006.

But there's little to choose between the two players right now and the bet I'm taking on in this one is to back three sets at around 2.407/5.

Recommended Bet
Back three sets in Djokovic v Murray at 2.407/5