Jamie Lynch on the Melbourne Cup: A shark's tale

Mount Athos (left) is reportedly enjoying a smooth preparation for the Melbourne Cup

In his preview of 'The Race That Stops A Nation', Jamie Lynch calls on another Australian emblem, the shark.

The shark has moved with the times. Off the coast of Australia, on the lengthy stretch between Queensland and New South Wales, biologists have discovered a new genus, a hybrid of the common black-tip shark (big) and the Australian black-tip (small), two similarly named but genetically distinct species. These medium-sized, black-tipped arrivistes have evolved for the purpose of range expansion, adapting to climate change, and the result, according to the experts, is a better, stronger animal.

Meanwhile, on mainland Australia, a parallel, if manufactured, process of evolution is perhaps underway for the thoroughbred, likewise for the purpose of range expansion, adapting to racing's climate change, to engineer a better, stronger-staying animal, one who'll defend the nation's prized possession: the Melbourne Cup.

The Melbourne Cup, for so long out of European reach, save for Dermot Weld, is now almost part of the European Union, the power shift heralded by a trio of British-trained seconds (2007-9) and rubber-stamped by back-to-back French wins with Americain and Dunaden, two horses back for more this year, and both in with a big chance of a repeat judging by the Caulfield Cup.

It's the quantity and not just the quality of the overseas challenge that is now pushing the down under horses down and under, highlighted last year, when the European contingent numbered 11 runners (4 more than the previous record), virtually half of the field, and, most telling of all, they filled six of the first seven places.

There are two sides to every story, however, and if the Australian stayers are in fact now subject to bullying in their own back yard, it's only overdue payback for the terror their sprinters have spread over a much longer period of time across the globe, particularly in Britain where, in the last ten years, various Aussie speedballs have between them plundered four King's Stands, two Diamond Jubilees and a Nunthorpe.

The Australians are the undisputed world leaders at breeding and producing sprinters, culminating with the glorious Black Caviar, arguably the finest and fastest there has ever been, but to get to this stage something had to give, and what gave was the quality control at the other end of the spectrum, the stayers, hence the recent vulnerabilities regards the Melbourne Cup.

If you can't beat them, buy them.

During Royal Ascot week, on what remains the best night of my year so far, but the worst next morning, I was lucky enough to attend a racing shindig in London for visiting Australians, amongst them a number of high-rolling governors and owners. Their pride in Black Caviar was matched only by their dismay at the way the Melbourne Cup is going, and several of the owners were combining fun time at Royal Ascot with a covert mission: to see some of the European horses they'd either bought or were considering buying to strengthen the 'home' defence of the Melbourne Cup.

That process has already begun. Look at this year's entries. After the latest acceptance stage, of the 14 Australian-trained horses currently making the cut, only six were born and bred in the Southern Hemisphere, the other eight having been recruited from Britain, Ireland and France, or America as was the case with German-native Sanagas. The acronym ABA is many things to many different countries, such as the Amateur Boxing Association of England in the sporting world, the Asahi Broadcasting Aomori of Japan in the TV world, and the American Bankers Association in the underworld, but in Australia, as far as finding a Melbourne Cup winner goes, it seems that ABA stands for Anywhere But Australia.

It's now not so much 'the race that stops a nation' as 'the nation that shops for a race'.

Such an influx of the highly-rated European horses, coupled with a renewed focus towards the stayers, may mean that, in ten or twenty years time, like the black-tipped shark, the Australian thoroughbred evolves - or re-evolves - to favour stamina over speed, which would at least give us Brits a chance in our sprints. But for now, and for the foreseeable future, the Euros or ex-Euros are the horses to concentrate on for the Melbourne Cup, and this year there's one above all who looks primed, ready and able to win.

At the end of 2011, the talented-but-tricky Mount Athos was transferred to Luca Cumani's stable for the express purpose of winning the 2012 Melbourne Cup, and through this season, under Cumani's expert guidance, we've seen far more of the talented Mount Athos and none of the tricky one.

Cumani knows what it takes - or very nearly takes - to win the Melbourne Cup, Purple Moon beaten half a length in 2007 and Bauer a nose in 2008, and he's been meticulous in his planning and training, all building towards Flemington, to get Mount Athos where he needs to be, in terms of both condition and entry-level rating. Three from three for Cumani, each performance an improvement on the last and each race specifically selected to fit in with the grand plan, Mount Athos has enjoyed an ideal preparation, including, it is reported, since his arrival in Australia on October 1st.

Of course, preparation is nothing without the supportive ability, but Mount Athos definitely has the figures and form to make him a leading contender; the leading contender, in fact. Ratings are what we at Timeform specialise in - it's what we've been doing for over six decades - and Timeform ratings tell the story to a large extent. After his progress this summer, Mount Athos is rated 123, higher than Red Cadeaux (122), Jakkalberry (116) and Cavalryman (118), and yet in the Melbourne Cup he receives weight off the first two (1.5 kg, effectively 3 lb) and carries the same as the last-named. In short, our ratings suggest Mount Athos has been let in comparatively lightly by the Victoria handicapper.

What's more, it's a very solid 123 rating, and a minimum if anything. In a valuable handicap at York back in July, Mount Athos administered what amounted to a 13 lb beating - by 4 lengths, conceding 8 lb - to High Jinx, who is now rated 118 following his seconds in better company including a Group 1 in France. Then, a month later in a Group 3 at Newbury, Mount Athos made short work of five rivals, amongst them the first and second from the 2011 St Leger.

He'll obviously need some luck, regards both the draw and the inevitable traffic, but luck is when preparation meets opportunity, they say, and Mount Athos has been painstakingly prepared for this long-range opportunity.

The Melbourne Cup has a rich history and pride of place in Australia, its heritage for so long safeguarded by legacy, the human ethos, and sometimes the equine genes, passed on from one generation to the next, remembering that 1971 Cup winner Silver Knight sired 1984 winner Black Knight. Perhaps one day, in homage to the evolved Australian shark, an evolved Australian thoroughbred named Black-Tip Knight will reclaim the Melbourne Cup for the natives, but we're in the age of a European stranglehold and, again this year, the local horses have a mountain to climb, known specifically as Mount Athos.

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