четверг, 25 октября 2012 г.

Handicappers' Corner: A fitting finale for Frankel

Frankel defeats Cirrus des Aigles at Ascot.

In our regular feature, David Johnson looks at the key ratings from Champions' Day at Ascot, and also looks a little deeper at the numbers behind Frankel's great career...

The title of British Champions Day looked something of a misnomer as the Irish dominated the early races at Ascot on Saturday, and perhaps just Champions Day would have been more fitting, as in truth, the whole occasion revolved around Frankel, giving racing and its supporters the opportunity to pay tribute to Frankel, and his achievements over the last three seasons.

Compiling a perfect 14-0 record, he was Timeform's clear-top rated juvenile, 5 lb clear of his nearest pursuer Dream Ahead, as a 3-y-o his rating of 143 was the highest earned since Brigadier Gerard's 144 in 1972 and as a 4-y-o he earned the highest rating awarded in Timeform's 64-year history when putting up a performance worthy of a rating of 147 in the Queen Anne.

What sets Frankel apart isn't just his brilliance, but the consistency with which he has reproduced it. Even after races in which you would be forgiven for thinking he had shown his all, he came back next time and did it again, usually by further and in more impressive fashion.

Amongst those fourteen victories, ten were rated in excess of 130, six of them higher than 140 (when taking into account the extra over the bare result). It's truly a measure of where Frankel set the bar that we think of his rating for winning the Champion Stakes on Saturday as just 139.

The Champion Stakes wasn't about Frankel being at his scintillating best, and whilst it's too dramatic to suggest he was winning in the face of adversity, he hardly had everything go his way. A slow start meant he was perhaps further back in the early stages than had been the plan and more testing ground blunted his most potent weapons, the relentless galloping stride he'd shown in the Queen Anne, and the instant acceleration in the Juddmonte.

This was also arguably the strongest field Frankel had encountered, Cirrus Des Aigles and Nathaniel both bona-fide Group 1 performers in their own right but unable to get any closer to him than one and three quarter lengths and four and a quarter lengths. In awarding Frankel a performance figure of 139, Cirrus Des Aigles has been adjudged to have performed to 135 and Nathaniel up to his current rating of 129.

When using historical standards to assess races, Timeform generally look at the last five runnings (where available), but doing so for the Champion Stakes is probably misleading. Since the race has been switched to Ascot with added prize money, both renewals have been much stronger than the Newmarket version, and it is arguable that a standard figure of 134 based solely on the 2011 renewal, when taking into account the differences at the weights/field size etc. is a better guide than the five-year version of 130.

As has been commented before, Timeform also use prior ratings standards, which take into account the ratings of the contestants in a specific race rather than historical renewals, and they would suggest a figure of 140 for the Champion Stakes.

The timefigures Frankel has produced give further credence to his exceptional merit, clocking a timefigure of 134 in the Champion Stakes, and he has actually recorded four of the six highest timefigures since the turn of the century.

It might not be a universal opinion, certainly not yet anyway, but Timeform continue to have no hesitation in naming Frankel as the best horse it has ever rated.

Immediately prior to the Champion Stakes was the QEII, and whilst Excelebration was spared having to take on Frankel once more, he was again somewhat in the shadow of his nemesis, with his top-class effort in winning the QEII arguably not getting the credit it deserved.

In beating Cityscape and Elusive Kate by much further than he'd managed when they met in the Jacques Le Marois, Excelebration ran to a rating of 135, the highest figure awarded to a miler that wasn't Frankel since Hawk Wing's 136 in the infamous Lockinge of 2003.

Historical standards vary quite markedly for the QEII, giving a range of 127-142, and prior rating standards point to a figure in the mid 130's. The overall time for the QEII was ordinary, the timefigure only 113, but this was as a result of a modest early pace.

Excelebration is bound for the Breeders' Cup now, where a duel in the Mile against the best horse in North America, the 134-rated Wise Dan should prove a tremendous contest.

Whilst the two Group 1 contests on Saturday fulfilled their brief in producing clear cut winners and establishing a clear level of merit, it can hardly be said that the supporting races did the same.

Though Times Up was absent, the Long Distance Cup featured most of the big guns in the staying division, but it didn't take the winning it might have with Fame And Glory, Saddler's Rock, Opinion Poll and Colour Vision all below their early season form.

Rite Of Passage, the Gold Cup winner in 2010, had run only once since, and Dermot Weld deserves a huge amount of credit to get him back to win off a 17-month absence. Rated 124 at his peak, Rite Of Passage didn't have to run to any higher than 117 on Saturday, the race one to take a cautious view of with the first six separated by less than four lengths.

Although Sapphire was a decisive winner of the Filles' And Mares' event, a number of her rivals failed to give their running. Like at Longchamp, Great Heavens looked beforehand as if she's had enough for the year and produced a laboured effort, whilst Dancing Rain hadn't made it to the track all year.

It's hard to be confident that Sapphire achieved more than what that pair are capable of at their best and she joins Great Heavens on 120. Though a 4-y-o, Sapphire is worth keeping in training in an attempt to land a Group 1.

There was perhaps an element of opportunism in the Champions Sprint too, the European scene lacking a star in the sprint division, and Maarek didn't need to improve on his pre-race rating of 120. Long since at his best in testing ground, it also seemed an advantage to be held up, the first three all coming from well off the pace.

Timeform's Horses To Follow for the 2012/3 NH season is out now! Get an interview with Donald McCain and ante-post advice as well as 65 horses to follow from Britain and Ireland. Get your copy now!

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