Boxing Betting: Saldivia could push Brook all the way

Kell Brook took some punishment from Carson Jones before emerging victorious

Kell Brook is trading at short odds to beat Hector Saldivia on Saturday, but Alex Steedman reckons the Argentine will be a tough nut to crack so is backing the Sheffield man to win by decision at a decent price

Often would-be world champions ride a bump or two along the way. Kell Brook nearly crashed when encountering that bump in July but you sense he will be a stronger man and a better fighter for it. This weekend we will all learn if that is so when he faces Hector Saldiva in the Betfair-sponsored final eliminator for an IBF world title shot.

Brook has become something of a burgeoning star as well as a ticket seller in his native Sheffield but there is no doubt the wheels nearly fell off on that July evening against Carson Jones.

Wake-up call

Through the first half of the fight Brook was dominant, looking every part the heir apparent but as the pace slowed and Jones landed, it developed into a mini battle with himself. Nose blooded and damaged, Brook fought on guts and adrenalin down that painful stretch as Jones hounded him. Had the American started faster and thrown more punches it might have been a different story.

The closeness of the fight and the nature of the struggle was certainly a wake-up call for Brook who, along with promoter Eddie Hearn, hinted at inadequate preparation regarding his weight in the build-up. Having survived the hard yards, Brook knows he has it in him but he also understands complacency has no place in a boxing ring. I expect it won't happen again.

So Brook, currently trading at a skinny 1.11/10 for the win, learned a painful lesson but one without literal cost and lest we forget, he completely outclassed a rated, experienced opponent before fitness and weight took their toll. It will probably take an above average performance from Brook to diffuse Hector Saldivia (11.5n/a), another hard man from Argentina.

Saldivia fared well with world class countrymen Marcos Maidana (who lost narrowly to Amir Khan) and Walter Matthysse (interim WBC champion) when amateur and he's only lost twice in 43 pro fights since.

Saldivia has stopped 32 opponents along the way so he's a threat but his recent form is solid if not exactly spectacular. The Oxnard resident decisioned tough guy Carlos Perez (been the distance with Saul Alvarez) last October but his win over Jonathan Dunn in February underlines the fact that he's good not stellar. Saldivia is a measure of where a potential star is at rather than the star himself.

Must-win

This is a fight Kell Brook must win if he's to get a shot at a title and one he should win if he's fit and focused. The market for Brook to win by KO/TKO/DQ is lop-sided for me at 1.444/9 (Fixed Odds price - Exchange price may be better as the fight approaches) though I'm sure he has the technique and power to do just that. Saldivia hasn't lost in two years but he was stopped in a round by Said Ouali who was dropped and stopped on cuts by Brook's old friend Carson Jones, so he might be able to do a similar job.

I just think the DEC/TD market is simply too big at 4.03/1 (Fixed Odds) given Saldivia's toughness alongside a dip in Brook's knockout form since he's moved up in level.

The Sheffield star has gone the distance in three of his last four 12-round fights so it may be that those combining factors direct this towards the final bell. I wouldn't be surprised if Brook is able to dominate an opponent more than 20 places below him in the world rankings but at the prices, I think the Brit on points is the call.

There is a close Sheffield family, an energetic promoter, a heavyweight TV company, an army of fans not to mention punters hoping that the Kell Brook show rolls on. Having survived one hell of a scare last time I think we can expect 'The Special One' to turn it on this weekend.

That likelihood puts Brook up next for a challenge at the world title and on a road where the bumps become sleeping policemen.

Recommended Bet: Brook by Decision/Technical Decision at 4.03/1

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