вторник, 30 октября 2012 г.

The Punter's De-Brief: Clinical Hanson see off Rory

Peter Hanson, the deserved winner of the BMW Masters

It's been a poor week for our man, as Rory fails to reel-in Peter Hanson in China and Nick Watney zooms through the field to win in Malaysia but what have we learnt for next year? Read his final analysis on the week here...

For the third time in eight days, someone stood on the 18th tee needing a birdie to break 60 on the PGA Tour. Following Tommy Gainey Gainey's efforts at the McGladrey Classic and Bo Van Pelt's mess-up on 18 yesterday, it was Nick Watney's turn but yet again, it wasn't to be. Like Van Pelt he made a bit of a horlicks of the hole and went on to make bogey but it didn't stopping him winning the CIMB Classic. He ended the week on 22-under-par, a shot clear of Van Pelt and Robert Garrigus.

And on the European Tour, despite a late rally by Rory McIlroy, Peter Hanson held his nerve to win the BMW Masters.

My Bets
With all the action being played out at unsociable hours, I've lost more sleep than I have cash but it's been a very unsatisfactory week. I didn't get too involved at the CIMB Classic and I'm glad I didn't. All the bets are detailed in the In-Play Blog apart from a cheap lay of Watney at 1.121/8.

He was three clear with two to play at the time but Bo Van Pelt had shown what the added pressure of heading for a 59 can do yesterday when he double-bogeyed the last and Watney was also trying to win the tournament. I felt it was worth the risk but he birdied the par 5 17th, which cancelled out the final hole slip, and he eventually won by one.

At the BMW Masters, I didn't strike a single in-play bet, as I thoroughly expected pre-event pick, Rory McIlroy, to win and I'm still a bit surprised and disappointed by his performance over the weekend.

For years he'd looked a little suspect in-contention but when he stormed to victory at the US PGA Championship in August and quickly followed that win with back-to back successes in the FedEx Cup series, to all intents and purpose the apprenticeship looked over and before us stood the master craftsman. He was starting to appear Tigeresque, but his performance this weekend was not even close to that standard.

On a track that suits his game perfectly, his three under-par round yesterday was some way below what I'd expected but that paled into insignificance when compared to his dreadful start today. He missed a couple of putts from inside four feet and whilst everyone else was making birdies left, right and centre, he stood on the 6th tee, two over-par for the day.

McIlroy had started the day one behind Hanson but with less than a third of the final round gone, that margin had stretched to four. Rory didn't just open the door for Hanson, he kicked it off its hinges and the gap was just too big. The Swede was able to relax and play his own game and it was only at the very end, when McIlroy finally started to hit his putts with conviction, that the Swede looked in the least bit shaky.

I'm not crabbing Hanson, although he did hit one or two loose shots at the end, he scrambled brilliantly under pressure and his up-and downs on both 16 and 17 were quite simply magnificent but I do feel his task was made immeasurably easier by Rory's atrocious start.

Player to Swerve
Nicolas Colsaerts is just about un-backable in stroke play events now. He hit a low of 5.04/1 on Saturday morning when he got to the lead but then hit back-to-back double bogeys on 16 and 17. The man's an absolute liability when he hits the front and he remains one to avoid.

What have we learnt for next year?
There is rough but with very wide fairways, you have to be extremely inaccurate off the tee to find it. Greens have different levels or sections, placing a premium on accurate approach shots, made all the more easier, the further down the fairway you are. Length off the tee is most definitely a big advantage. Those that weren't long but still figured this week were either top-drawer players or players that had good form in the desert.

You could do worse than backing those with course form in places like Dubai and Qatar and if they get it out there off the tee, that's all the better.

A late turnaround is certainly possible here, Rory trailed by four with four to play but ended up losing by the narrowest of margins and he only got beat thanks to some tremendously gutsy scrambling from Hanson. The last two holes on the course are really tough and the Swede needed a lengthy par save on 17 to avoid finishing bogey-bogey.

It's a very exposed course and if much wind is forecast it will be a huge factor and that will probably be the only thing to put me off Rory. It's very long, with wide fairways and receptive soft greens and it's tailor-made for his game.

As for the CIMB Classic, when two players threaten 59 on consecutive days, it goes without saying that the course is very gettable. Watney came from off the pace to win this week but I still think there's mileage in backing the halfway pace-setters. Robert Garrigus wasn't anywhere near to his best over the weekend but he still only lost by one. If someone a bit more reliable leads the way through 36 holes next year it might be futile to look any further.

And finally, keep an eye on Scott Piercy. He was suffering with jetlag at the start of the week and he opened up with rounds of 75 and 68 but still managed to tie for 10th after shooting 64 and 62 on the weekend. If he gets there a few days earlier to acclimatise, he could go well.

There's just the one event to look forward to this week, the WGC- HSBC Champions and as I'm off on holiday tomorrow, I'll either preview the event this evening or first thing in the morning.

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