Breeders' Cup Turf: Abbey to just Nic it

St Nicholas Abbey is narrowly preferred in the Turf.

Timeform's Tony McFadden takes a look at the Breeders' Cup Turf, a race for so long the preserve of the Europeans...

Much like Ian Poulter in a Ryder Cup singles match, the Breeders' Cup Turf has traditionally been a 'gimme' for the raiding party. In fact, such has been the European stranglehold on the contest, 10 of the last 12 renewals (if you include High Chapparal's dead-heat) have been won by European-trained contenders. However, if the betting is to be believed, things could be different this year with US-trained Point of Entry shading last year's winner, St Nicholas Abbey, at the head of the Betfair ante-post market.

This year's Ryder Cup was, of course, a memorable and nail-biting affair, going right down to the wire as Europe launched a late challenge to snatch victory at the last conceivable moment; Timeform ratings suggest that the Breeders' Cup Turf could be an equally hard-fought contest with little to separate the two principals.

It isn't difficult to see why Point of Entry commands such a prominent position towards the head of the market; he has quite clearly established himself as the pre-eminent middle-distance turf performer in America, racking up a string of wins, including three at the top level. In the past, numerous horses have dominated the American turf scene only to come up short when pitched into battle with their European rivals. However, there is reason to suspect that Point of Entry has achieved a level of form certainly comparable with what the likes of St Nicholas Abbey and Shareta have produced.

His penultimate effort, when winning the Sword Dancer Invitational, was a tremendously impressive performance, quickening clear under a hands-and-heels ride having loomed up travelling strongly behind the leaders. Although subsequently not quite so good when landing another Grade 1 affair, the Joe Hirsch Invitational, it should be noted that he was encountering a softer surface, a surface which appeared to blunt the turn of foot that had been seen to such great effect in his two preceding triumphs. It may be dangerous to simplify matters, but the overriding impression is that conditions are likely to play an important factor in determining his prospects; the greater the emphasis on speed the better his chance.

The patriotism of Americans is renowned worldwide, but even the most ardent supporter of Point of Entry must concede that St Nicholas Abbey represents a significant threat. Aidan O'Brien's colt has always been held in high regard and, for all that he may not have quite hit the heights expected of him following his two-year-old campaign, it should be remembered that he is a four-time winner at the highest level, boasting a Breeders' Cup Turf win amongst his greatest victories.

Last year's renewal was run at a steady pace and, despite not being ideally positioned, St Nicholas Abbey quickened impressively to seal the contest with the minimum of fuss. That represented a career-best effort at the time, but he has been at least as good this year, adding another Coronation Cup to his haul, along with a highly-respectable run behind Frankel at York in the Juddmonte International. Favoured by fast ground, the manner of his victory last year suggests that he is also ideally suited to the tight nature of American Turf tracks and it would be no surprise were he to prove capable of even better returning to a similar set of conditions to those under which he thrived last year.

One small factor possibly worth taking into account is the harder schedule St Nicholas Abbey has faced this time. In the build-up to last year's race, O'Brien's charge was given a mid-season break after the King George, taking in a relatively soft 'prep' race in the Prix Foy before running in the Arc. However, this time he has taken in a gruelling race in the Juddmonte International before competing in two other top-level affairs, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Arc. It could prove to have minimal impact, but, at this late point in the season when some horses start to lose their form, it is worth considering.

O'Brien has another string to his bow in the shape of last year's Irish Derby winner Treasure Beach. Although back to something like his best behind Point of Entry last time, it is difficult to see him reversing the form with either the American challenger or St Nicholas Abbey, who proved superior in Meydan. Some will argue that Treasure Beach's price compensates for this, but he will probably need a few of his rivals to underperform if he is to prevail.

It is certainly worth touching on the claims of another European challenger, Shareta. Second in the Arc last year, finishing ahead of St Nicholas Abbey and the pacemaker Treasure Beach, Shareta has returned in good heart this year, winning a pair of Group 1 contests, the Yorkshire Oaks and the Prix Vermeille, before finding herself unsuited by the testing conditions which prevailed at Longchamp. She has a bit to find with the market leaders, but it is certainly not implausible that she will find the necessary improvement, particularly with quick conditions likely to suit.

The Ryder Cup may be an event reserved purely for Americans and Europeans, but the Breeders' Cup is not, and there is an outside prospect of Trailblazer taking the prize back to Japan. A smart performer, Trailblazer has fallen short when thrown into Group 1 company, but his victory in the Group 2 Kyoto Kinen was a good effort and wouldn't be too far off the standard required to make the frame here. He is unlikely to be carrying quite so much support as Orfevre was in his narrow defeat in the Arc, but, honestly, have you ever seen such impassioned support as THIS?

Tiger Woods famously conceded the last hole in this year's Ryder Cup, gifting victory to Europe, but if this set of Europeans are to retain their Breeders' Cup Turf title they will almost certainly have to battle all the way to the wire. There is precious little to separate St Nicholas Abbey and Point of Entry, both looking to hold exceptional claims, but what does distinguish the two is the price that they are trading at; St Nicholas Abbey is priced at 4.216/5, half a point bigger than the favourite, and the play at this stage has to be to side with O'Brien's contender, for all Point of Entry is hugely respected.

Recommendation:
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