Premier League Stats: Clean sheet crucial for Moyes' Everton

A repeat of this celebration means Liverpool won't lose

Andrew Atherley explains why a clean sheet is crucial if Everton want to win the Merseyside Derby, and why Liverpool don't lose when they score in this fixture...

Everton are the best team on Merseyside but to prove it in Sunday's derby game they might well have to break one of the most intriguing result patterns in English football.

It is a rare occurrence for Everton to have bragging rights, whether in the derby games or overall in terms of league position. Yet they finished above Liverpool in last season's Premier League table - for only the second time in the 10 full seasons since David Moyes took charge at Goodison Park - and they are even further ahead this season.

When it comes to the derby matches, however, Moyes's Everton have struggled to match their red rivals. In 20 Premier League derbies under Moyes, Everton have won just three and lost 12. That includes a pair of defeats last season, by an aggregate of 5-0, even when Liverpool were comparatively struggling.

But that's not the most interesting part of the results pattern. The remarkable thing is that the derby results divide neatly into two segments: matches in which Everton kept a clean sheet and those in which Liverpool scored. When Everton have kept a clean sheet in a league derby under Moyes, which is a fairly rare occurrence, their record is won three and drawn two out of five.

Whenever Everton have conceded, though, their win chance has gone west across the Irish Sea. Liverpool's record when scoring against Moyes's team is won 12, drawn three and lost none out of 15.

Liverpool, then, score in 75% of derbies and, when they do, their win rate is 80%.

Pretty compelling statistics that indicate a simple starting point when assessing Sunday's game: do you think Liverpool will score? Well, do ya, punk?

In recent seasons, it's been a fairly simple question to answer - hence Liverpool's strong derby record. This season, Liverpool's scoring record has been more hit and miss than usual - three blanks in their first eight Premier League games.

But it is worth noting that the only team to have conceded against Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool and beaten them in the Premier League is Manchester United, with a 2-1 win at Anfield (both United goals were scored after Liverpool were reduced to 10 men). The rest of Liverpool's record when scoring is won two, drawn two.

Everton, meanwhile, still rely on a clean sheet for their best results. They have won only two of the five Premier League games in which they have conceded this season and those were against bottom-four sides Aston Villa and Southampton.

Against the elite sides, Moyes clearly understands the importance of a clean sheet. Since the start of last season, Everton have won four out of 13 against the big six - all to nil - and have taken only one point from the nine games in which they have conceded.

That helps to explain why so many Everton v big six matches have under 2.5 goals (10 out of 13 since the start of last season, including all seven at Goodison Park). Under 2.5 Goals must appeal on Sunday at 1.9310/11.

As usual, then, there is more form available than a straight reading of the league table. What we have in Everton is a generally low-scoring side - especially against the better teams - that puts great faith in clean sheets, while on the other side are Liverpool with a decent scoring record even now and a good win rate when they do find the net.

Liverpool to win at 2.915/8 or off 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.991/1 have to be considered.

If Liverpool score, the stats say they will be hard to beat. The last time the Reds scored in a league derby and lost was way back in November 1995 - no wonder Moyes sets so much store in clean sheets.

Pick of the stats

Chelsea v Manchester United
Since Jose Mourinho left Chelsea, nine of the 12 domestic meetings between these sides have had over 2.5 goals.

Southampton v Tottenham
Seven of Southampton's eight games have had over 3.5 goals

Recommended Bets

Liverpool off 0 on Asian handicap v Everton at 1.991/1
Chelsea v Manchester United over 2.5 goals at 1.758/11

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