воскресенье, 28 октября 2012 г.

Follow The Money: Treasure to be found with Magical bet

National Hunt racing provides today's FTM movers

Today's Follow The Money comes from the meetings at Worcester and Fontwell...

We begin at Worcester where there has been sustained support for Catch The Rhythm in the 2m bumper at 14:40, now trading at 3.3512/5 from an early 8.27/1. With this race being for newcomers there isn't any form to go on but he's related to plenty of winners and his dam was placed in two bumpers. Trainer Charlie Longsdon has a 23% strike rate at the course and 20% in this sphere on the whole, a record which includes a debutant he sent out to win a maiden bumper at Plumpton on Monday. With the money down and jockey Noel Fehily booked, this appears to be the trainer's best hope of improving those statistics from his two runners in the race.

We stay at the midlands venue for our next piece of advice where Magical Treasure has been well backed this morning, now available to back at 5.24/1 having been as high as 7.613/2. Although yet to taste success after twelve career starts, the grey ran well off this mark over hurdles and fences in the spring, finishing a close up fourth and second respectively, before being tailed off on his final appearance. However the eight-year-old is now in the hands of Sarah Kerswell, who has had an encouraging start to her training career and has displayed an aptitude to ready a horse after a break with both her winners from five runners doing just that. With jockey James Best taking 5lb off the top weight, the move indicates he's primed to get off the mark.

We go to Fontwell for our negative where Easter Day continues to prove easy to back in the 2m2f novice hurdle at 16:00, now out to 4.77/2 having been backed as low as 2.3211/8. This four-year-old has been placed in bumpers on his two career starts to date, most recently when only denied by half a length at Worcester back in May, and with trainer Paul Nicholls having an impressive 36% strike rate at the track he wouldn't be the most obvious to take on. However he makes his hurdles debut today and will have to encounter vastly different conditions to the good ground he ran on last time. With well-backed rivals Milarrow and Pearls Legend both winners over the obstacles and having soft ground form, the market suggests he will have to wait to lose his maiden tag.

Recommended Bets

Back Catch The Rhythm @ 3.55/2 14:40 Worcester
Back Magical Treasure @ 5.24/1 15.15 Worecester
Lay Easter Day @ 4.77/2 16.00 Fontwell

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