Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf: An inextricable link to success

Matt thinks The Fugue can win at Santa Anita

Timeform's Matt Gardner reckons the 2012 Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf prize can be won by the Europeans, although the home nation also boasts a couple of strong contenders...

When imagining things that complement each other, that truly go well together, the mind instantly springs to gastronomy, a world in which life is all about balance and combination. Lamb and mint and beef and horseradish are almost the staples, but even more rudimentary conquests such as garlic and bread, fish and chips and bacon and sandwich most likely qualify.

Combinations in racing are difficult to establish, mainly as one partner is usually not around long enough for the enterprise to flourish, but a number do readily scream for attention. The soon to be non-existent tie between Frankie Dettori and Godolphin endured for 18 years, the great man becoming synonymous with Sheikh Mohammed's Royal Blue, and would come to the fore on many a list, with the likes of Piggott and O'Brien, Hannon and Hughes and La Estrella and Southwell also in the shake-up.

We're going to play a risky game now and go into the realms of the unknown, as we attempt to predict/anticipate a match made in heaven. Past efforts at this game have proved futile, as sticky toffee pork pie and beer-battered pasta carbonara evidence, but this one we can be confident about. It is The Fugue and Santa Anita, specifically the mile and a quarter distance of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf.

The John Gosden-trained three-year-old made quite an impression on her sole start last season, landing a Newmarket maiden, and she ran a respectable fourth in the 1000 Guineas on her return, taking her time to pick up over an inadequate eight furlongs and unlikely to have been suited by the soft ground. The Fugue went on to easily land the Musidora at York and was most unlucky to finish only third in the Epsom Oaks, being badly hampered about half a mile from home and left poorly placed before finishing strongly. She maybe found the race coming too soon when second in the Ribblesdale just three weeks later, again with conditions possibly against her, but she got right back on track with success in the Group 1 Nassau Stakes, impressing greatly with the style of her win.

The Fugue was sent off favourite to beat the previous year's Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe runner-up Shareta in the Yorkshire Oaks but she probably hit the front too soon, seeming to idle a little before being caught by that rival close home. That effort represented a slight improvement in her form and left the impression that there was yet more to come if things went more her way, and there is every chance that they will do on Friday night.

Everything about The Fugue, from her close-coupled physique to her rapid acceleration, gives definite indication that she will be matched ideally with the tight turf track at Santa Anita. The manner in which the race is played out is not a major concern, as she will travel strongly off a quick pace before making her move or will do her rivals for a turn of foot off a steady pace, and she appeals as being a cracking bet at 3.55n/a.

Let us not get too carried away however, as The Fugue does have several creditable rivals to overcome. Ridasiyna will be her main adversary in the eyes of many but, in direct contrast to The Fugue, the suspicion is that the Mikel Delzangles-trained filly will not find things to her liking in the US. It is no coincidence that her latest improvement came about when faced with a stern test at a mile and a quarter, mowing down Izzi Top in the Longchamp straight and winning the day through stamina on heavy ground. Track configuration and the likely going will be against her, and more dangerous rivals lurk among the remainder.

Nahrain, trained by Roger Varian, enjoyed a fantastic first season in training last year, gaining four wins and narrowly being touched off in this event, but her first two starts of this campaign were something of a disappointment. Her third to Up in the Blandford Stakes yielded more positive signs however, and she confirmed that impression when returning to her best with success in the Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational at Belmont Park, beating Zagora by half a length. She appears to be coming to the boil at just the right time, and a bold bid cannot be ruled out.

The US contingent looks to be headed by Marketing Mix and In Lingerie, who are both of interest for very different reasons. The former has won seven of her 10 starts since being switched to turf and has taken her form to another level in her last three starts, winning a Grade 2 at Woodbine before narrowly being denied by the reopposing I'm A Dreamer in the Beverly D. Stakes and landing the Grade 1 Rodeo Drive Stakes over C&D last month. A repeat of her latest piece of form would put her bang there, and her level of consistency will give her supporters a further boost.

In Lingerie joined current trainer Todd Pletcher following her debut success and she has improved steadily since, landing the Grade 3 Bourbonette Stakes and the Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes. Her latest outing, when winning the Spinster Stakes at Keeneland, was her best effort yet and there is every chance that she could prove capable of better still, but there is a sticking point in that this will be her turf debut. Were she to take off on the surface a la Marketing Mix she would have an excellent chance of challenging The Fugue, but it is something of an unknown and makes it difficult to really get behind her.

Like cheese and biscuits, white wine and fish and chocolate and orange, The Fugue and Santa Anita can soon become inextricably linked, not so much in the history of cuisine but as a small part of the Breeders' Cup antiquity. Playing the 3.55n/a currently available about her ought to yield enough profit to keep us in caviar and champagne for a period of time, let's just hope that Nahrain cannot go one better than last year, Marketing Mix isn't quite good enough and In Lingerie doesn't take to turf.

Recommendation
Back The Fugue @ 3.55n/a in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf