суббота, 27 октября 2012 г.

Aviva Premiership: Exeter to make life hard for Bath

Exeter led Clermont at half-time in the Heineken Cup last weekend

There are two West Country sides in live action this week but Geoffrey Riddle sees only joy for one of them in his week seven preview of the Premiership.

Bath v Exeter
Exeter have been priced attractively on Betfair to make a decent fist of it against Bath at The Rec on Saturday.
The Chiefs have not won away from home in five matches since they defeated Worcester at Sixways last season but they have faced some extremely tough tasks.
They fronted up well against Northampton when going down by three points at Franklin's Gardens this season, and they led there at half-time.
There is no doubting the spirit within the side and to lose by the same margin to Leinster in Dublin in the Heineken Cup was an extraordinary effort - the champions didn't cross the whitewash.
It all makes last weekend's effort against Clermont in the European tournament all the more disappointing. Exeter were once again ahead at the break by 12-10, with the Tomahawk Chop resounding around Sandy Park. And yet, when Exeter had the opportunity to claim a legendary scalp they faltered, and were battered by four second-half tries to lose 46-12.
Exeter were without Ignacio Mieres and Richard Baxter, who both received yellow cards and the French side's third try was questionable as Jason Shoemark was taken out illegally off the ball at a crucial stage.
Carping about what might have happened will not get us anywhere, but it only highlights that at an elite level even the smallest things can add up to create a poor result. It also underlines that if Exeter keep their wits about them and stay on the right side of referee Wayne Barnes they can be competitive.
Exeter finished above Bath in last season's table and they are above the West Country side once again after six matches. It doesn't take a brain surgeon therefore to see that Exeter are the better team, and as such they should not get a handicap start as big as 5.5 on Betfair. If you can get a first-half handicap of two to three points, then so much the better.
Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts Exeter +5.5 pts

Gloucester v Leicester
Another West Country side are in live action on Saturday with Gloucester hosting Leicester at Kingsholm.
Leicester have been conceding too many turnovers this season, and they racked up 19 against Toulouse in the Heineken Cup when going down 23-19. It led to the stalemate-breaking try that broke Leicester in France. Although the Tigers were far more composed in last week's easy win over Ospreys, they leaked more turnover ball than their Welsh visitors despite winning 39-22.
It gives Gloucester serious hope of racking up a decent amount of points and the home side are the third highest-scoring side in the section behind Harlequins and Exeter.
There is a fine forecast in store and with Freddie Burns, the leading points scorer in the Premiership, kicking points for fun this should probably be a scratch match. Take Gloucester with the 3.5-point start on Betfair, and perhaps back the home side in the winning margin market.
Recommended Bet
1pt Gloucester +3.5pts

London Irish v Harlequins
London Irish seem to have put their shaky start to this season behind them and they would make a huge statement if they could derail Harlequins at the Madejski Stadium on Sunday.
That statement would be even greater if Exiles wing Topsy Ojo led the way by scoring because last weekend in the 69-26 success over Mont De Marsan he surpassed Conor O'Shea's tryscoring record.
Of course, O'Shea, the Harlequins supremo, will have much greater things on his mind, namely getting his side back on track after they blew their impressive start to the season when losing firstly at home to Saracens, and then spectacularly against Exeter.
It is easy to assume that just because Harlequins have scored the most points in the league, and their hosts have conceded even more, that the champions can simply turn up in Reading and win.
The main match handicap line looks accurate with Quins giving up 3.5 points but with the accent firmly on attack, and the two sides having previous in try gluts against each other, this could be one for going long of total points.

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