US Election Daily Update: Can Romney win Iowa?

Does Mitt have any chance in Iowa?

Eliot Pollack provides Sunday's US Election update with a look at some of the key states that the Republican hopes to win...

As talk of hurricanes and tropical storms, not to mention the final MLB matches of the season, knock the Presidential race off the top of the news agenda, now seems the best time to take a more macro look at the 2012 Presidential Race.

What do we know? Mitt Romney surely has to win Colorado, Virginia and Florida to win the Presidency. Colorado remains a toss-up - the most reliable and stable polls have it level-pegging. Florida however, seems all set to go GOP red, with poll leads steady at around 2%. Romney also has a lead in Virginia (albeit narrower), and reports on the ground in the American press suggest he is doing well enough there.

So where else becomes critical? Nevada looks set to go Democrat again, as every single poll has Obama ahead. In all presidential state contests except one since 2000, there was at least one poll where the eventual winning candidate led. (The exception nerds, was New Mexico in 2000 where two of the polls showed a tie and the other one had a small Bush lead - Dubya ended up losing that contest by fewer than 400 votes.)

So if Romney doesn't win in Nevada, he has three recourses; he must win either Ohio, or Wisconsin and New Hampshire, or Iowa. In Ohio again, Romney doesn't lead in a single poll. The best he can do is just one tie across 11 polls conducted over the last week. Wisconsin is the same story - Romney hasn't been ahead in a single poll since August.

Which leaves Iowa as the decisive state - on the Betfair market, Obama is 1.511/2 to take it, whereas the challenger is 2.8415/8. As throughout the campaign, I remain resolute in thinking Obama is under-priced. Back the President.