Australian MotoGP: Can Casey sign off with a win?

Farewell, Casey

Trent Burton selects the weekend's best bets and prepares to bid farewell to the greatest rider of his generation...

Fairy tale finales aren't commonplace in sports, not even among the greats. Muhammad Ali ended weakened, Don Bradman with a duck and Zinedine Zidane with a head-butt. This weekend at Phillip Island, Casey Stoner has the rare opportunity to sign off in the best possible way imaginable.

The Australian MotoGP will be the two time world champion's penultimate race of his career, and obviously his final one at home, at hisbeloved Phillip Island, a track that is the favourite of almost every rider in the series. After only coming back from injury less thanthree weeks ago there was serious doubt about how he might be able to perform at a circuit where he's won convincingly for the past five years. A circuit where on Thursday, Turn 3 was renamed Stoner Corner. So, no pressure. Those doubts were blown to pieces after the first 20 minutes of the first session on Friday.

Stoner has spent the last two days showing fans why he'll be desperately missed next year, and showing his competitors why they'll be glad to see him gone. It's been an absolute masterclass. For most of the weekend, a semi-fit Stoner has been over a second a lap quicker than his closest rivals, Jorge Lorenzo and Dani Pedrosa. It's almost the stuff of fiction. You dare not think where he'd be if he were at 100%. In qualifying on Saturday, he had a small crash before getting back on track to go even quicker just ten minutes later. His 1.412/5 price shows that fairy tale is starting to look more like non-fiction. As short as that price is, barring a total unforseen disaster, it's as guaranteed a bet as you'll find in any sport all weekend.

Meanwhile, the two Spaniards, Lorenzo and Pedrosa, have a championship to settle. Both appear to be resigned to the fact they will be battling each other for second in the race, Lorenzo declaring Stoner to be "Really on another planet." Lorenzo might have shown up as second on the qualifying sheets but in truth he was third, with daylight in second. The key for him is to beat Pedrosa. If he does that this weekend, near the pointy end, he's world champion. If not, the title goes to the wire in Valencia where anything could happen. Lorenzo wants to wrap it up but Pedrosa is on his heels and he's been more consistent so far, and is easily the man on form. I see Pedrosa prevailing in that battle for second but at 1.111/9 for a Top 3 for the pair of them, they are almost a lock to fill out the podium. They are resigned to the fact they can't stop Stoner, so must play it safe battling each other. If disaster strikes Stoner, a 5.14/1 Pedrosa can pick up the pieces, but that huge gap in the market only goes to show just how much Stoner has dominated this weekend.

Such is Stoner's dominance it's difficult to find any other value in the field beyond 'Lay everyone else.' As such, let's take a quick look at Moto2. Pol Espargaro has been the man on form this weekend but I'm tempted by the very good price on offer of 7.413/2 for a Scott Redding win. The fast flowing, nature of Phillip Island suits the Brit as opposed to the stop-start nature of recent circuits. He's been riding well and has a great record at Phillip Island. Having just signed a new deal for next year, he'll want to reward his employers with a good result and I think a win is well within his reach. Marc Marquez should wrap up the title this weekend,so may not want to risk it all for the win, giving Scott that extra advantage as he battles Espargaro.

This weekend, despite the fact we could see two world champions crowned, really is about one thing. The chance to bid farewell to one of the greatest the sport has ever seen. He should offer fans the sort of goodbye very few before him have had the chance to. He's not a man who shows emotion too often, but if he's on that top step on Sunday, expect that to mask to slip. This is the last time you'll get to see the greatest rider of his era, on the greatest circuit in the world. Set the alarm for Sunday morning and savour it.

Recommended Bets
Back Casey Stoner for the win at 1.392/5
Back Scott Redding for the win in Moto2 at 7.413/2