BNP Paribas Masters Betting: Right conditions for a big priced winner

Can Tsonga power his way to another Paris final?

The end of the tennis season is almost upon us, but first there's the small matter of the final Masters 1000 of the year the BNP Paribas Masters. Sean Calvert has identified some attractively priced betting options..

The 2012 ATP World Tour comes to its final week of main competition and we head to Paris for the BNP Paribas Masters.

For all bar the top-10 players in the world this Masters 1000 event is the final action of the season and it's one of the more likely Masters tournaments to throw up an unlikely winner.

Roger Federer won it for the first ever time 12 months ago, but Novak Djokovic has only won it once and Rafa Nadal and Andy Murray are yet to win it.

Conditions at the Palais Omnisports in Bercy have changed considerably in the last couple of years from fast to slow and this year's surface has been described to me as: "marginally, just a little slower than last year".

It should effectively be the same speed as we saw in Valencia and Basel last week, but that's still far slower than was the norm in Bercy just a few years ago.

The first thing to note about the draw this year is that it looks very competitive in the top half and arguably, slightly less so in the bottom half.

Federer is joined by Murray, Tomas Berdych, Janko Tipsarevic, Marin Cilic, Kei Nishikori, Juan Monaco, and Richard Gasquet in the top half, along with the likes of Alex Dolgopolov, Jurgen Melzer, Gilles Simon and Philipp Kohlschreiber.

In the bottom half Novak Djokovic is paired with Juan Martin Del Potro and the big serving but out of form duo John Isner and Milos Raonic, while David Ferrer and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga have perhaps the most comfortable quarter.

The scheduling this year of having the Paris Masters one week before the World Tour Finals is not only ridiculous, but it makes one question the intentions of many of the top stars in this mandatory tournament so close to the O2.

I doubt whether Federer will be at it this week having played in Basel and I prefer the claims of the in-form Tomas Berdych - a former winner of this tournament - in that quarter at around 18.017/1.

Federer has rarely done well here and as it's not being played in the same week as last year he's not defending title points, so I can see an early exit for the Swiss with an eye on London.

Nishikori at 90.089/1 is another option in that quarter on his form from the Asian swing and having had a rest since.

The adjacent section is Murray's, but he's never been past the quarter finals here and he too will surely be here for the match practice ahead of the O2, which brings Tipsarevic into the picture.

The Serbian should be pushing to ensure he's in London and 150.0149/1 isn't a bad price in those circumstances.

Djokovic has an 11-5 record here, but has barely turned up for the last two years here and 2.6213/8 represents no value at all in my view in these unique circumstances.

Del Potro doesn't tempt me either at a price of 16.015/1 having played two long weeks back-to-back and having already qualified for the Finals, so that quarter could see Isner take advantage if he's of the mind.

The American reached the semi finals here last year, but generally his efforts in Europe have been poor and 67.0n/a is perhaps a bit too short.

Raonic might be a better bet at 90.089/1, but he's in no sort of form and I wouldn't rule out someone like a Radek Stepanek at around 200.0199/1 being the one to cause a bit of a shock in conditions that suit in that quarter.

He was in fine form in Shanghai where it took a good comeback from Murray to beat him and the Czech is one to consider on a back-to-lay basis.

The final section should be good for Tsonga, who made the final here last year and his convenient 'injury' in Valencia last week has given him some time off, which was much-needed after a very packed recent schedule.

I would expect him to make the semi finals at least and 21.020/1 is big enough for a decent back-to-lay investment in the Frenchman.

So, with a few question marks over the motivation of the top guys this week it's worth creating a small portfolio of some of the bigger priced players, who should, in theory at least, be viewing this week as a great chance to grab a Masters title.

Recommended Bets (any of the following)
Back to lay Tsonga at 21.020/1
Back to lay Berdych at 18.017/1
Back to lay Stepanek at 200.0199/1
Back to lay Nishikori at 90.089/1