Breeders' Cup Classic: It's Game On for Macho Man

Mucho Macho Man was third in last year's Kentucky Derby

With the Breeders' Cup pre-entries now revealed, Keith Melrose takes a look at the $5m Classic.

Although the Breeders' Cup continues to grow in strength on the world stage, it's something of an uncomfortable truth that the Classic, ostensibly the most prestigious race at the meeting, has in recent years been left behind by races like the Turf and the Mile.

There are probably numerous factors contributing to this trend, not least the small sample size it derives from, but the racing surface must come pretty high on the list. The Classic is run on dirt, which is the default surface for American horses but alien to the vast majority of those coming from further afield. Therefore the Classic is often less a 'world championship', more the sort of contest you could, in theory, see on any other big race day at the likes of Belmont, Santa Anita or Churchill Downs.

The 2012 renewal is a pretty good case in point. All 14 of those remaining in the field are trained in North America, all bar one in the United States , though it should be pointed out that they represent just about the best the continent can offer in the circumstances following the retirement of both I'll Have Another and Bodemeister.

Plenty of the entrants have Breeders' Cup experience to their name, but the only previous winner, the highly likeable filly Royal Delta, is likely to attempt a defence of her Ladies' Classic crown rather than switch tack over this furlong-longer trip against the men.

If we can't find a previous winner, then, the next best thing is a previous runner-up, a comment which applies to Game On Dude, second to Drosselmeyer in this very race last year. He's been pretty reliable in 2012, putting an excusable flop in the Dubai World Cup behind him to improve marginally on what he showed last autumn. Regular rider Chantal Sutherland has recently retired, but Rafael Bejarano got on perfectly well with Game On Dude in the Awesome Again Stakes last time so there seems little to worry about on that score. On all the evidence we have, Game On Dude is a worthy favourite to go one better than at Churchill last November.

Aside from in Dubai, the only horse to beat Game On Dude this year has been Dullahan, last year's BC Juvenile fourth, who took his scalp in the Pacific Classic at Del Mar in August. Dullahan has since run a fairly lacklustre race on turf and is still doubly-entered (also in the Turf), while the weight allowance he received at Del Mar won't be so great here, something that our figures say will benefit Game On Dude, and indeed all the older horses.

Game On Dude may be the likeliest winner, but his current price rather sums up his chance and the value may be in looking a bit further down the list at Mucho Macho Man. He's taken his form up a level this year after finishing third in the 2011 Kentucky Derby, winning twice at Grade 2 level and having a few of his likely rivals in this race behind him over the course of the season. He was beaten a neck by To Honor And Serve in a messy renewal of the Woodward Stakes last time, but there's every reason to think that Mucho Macho Man, who was hampered that day, can reverse the form at Santa Anita.

Bill Mott's quartet, which includes Royal Delta, To Honor And Serve and dual Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out, is completed by Ron The Greek. He arguably should have won the Whitney Invitational Handicap at Saratoga in August despite giving weight away all round, and form on that level would give him a chance of at least placing in this, though he was soundly beaten by Mucho Macho Man when the pair met back in January.

Ultimately, the 2012 Breeders' Cup Classic may not be a truly international championship, but it should go a long way to deciding the pecking order in North America. Game On Dude has been a champion-in-waiting for much of the year and has every chance of delivering, but the less-fashionable Mucho Macho Man is a better play at the prices. Back Mucho Macho Man now, and consider an in-running lay closer to the time, as speed is likely to prove his forte over the Classic trip of 10 furlongs.

Recommendation
Back Mucho Macho Man in the Breeders' Cup Classic