вторник, 30 октября 2012 г.

Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Win a pretty Penny on Rose

Terry Norman is on the radio today and he has two bets for you...

Sometimes, when it comes to either selecting or backing a horse, you have to go with your gut feeling rather than listening to other people, especially trainers.

Dulkashe (16:00 Newbury) has twice been withdrawn by Luca Cumani when the ground has been soft and I'm not sure why. The filly finished second to Saytara on similar ground last season at Newcastle and was a massive eye-catcher on her latest start at Nottingham. Also, her half sisters, Hallingdal and Wistman, won on good to soft while Ryedale Dancer won on heavy. For good measure, the handicapper has dropped Dulkashe a 1 lb for that run behind Art Scholar, who has since ran well behind the progressive and unexposed First Mohican. Princess Caetani, Choral Festival and Misdemeanour will all be happy on the ground but Dalkashe is a filly still on the upgrade and I'm convinced she is capable of better, entering the race relatively fresh on only her fourth start of the season.

There may only be five runners in the 1m nursery at Doncaster (14:40) but it's an interesting race where the two main protagonists, Darkening and Penny Rose, have the strongest claims. Darkening is likely to start favourite after his rallying second to Red Avenger at Newmarket last month but he has still to prove, admittedly from limited evidence, that he will be effective on this soft ground. His best form has been on fast.
I prefer the filly Penny Rose, who finished strongly in the fillies' sales race behind impressive winner Victrix Ludorum. Having been held up entering the dip, Mark Johnston's daughter of Danehill Dancer finished strongly to suggest the step up to a mile will be ideal. Also, there is evidence in the pedigree to suggest that the soft ground will help Penny Rose. Her half-sister, Yours Ever (runs in 3.50) has won on heavy. Fillies can be risky propositions with the onset of winter but Penny Rose can take full advantage of the 3lb she receives.

Recommend Bets:

Back Dulkashe @ 6.25/1 in the 16:00 Newbury
Back Penny Rose @ 2.89/5 in the 14:40 Doncaster

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