Epsom Handicap Preview: Its all about Al

Randwick will host the Epsom Handicap
Gary Crispe takes a look at the Epsom Handicap, due off at Saturday 07:00 BST at Randwick.
A high quality field of super fit gallopers will do battle in this afternoon's Group 1 Epsom Handicap over the famous Randwick mile.
With construction work well advanced on the new Grandstand Complex the crowd size will be limited however the scene is set for the 2012 renewal of one of Australia's oldest handicap races.
First run in 1865, the Epsom gained group 1 status in 1979 and has been won by many of Australia's outstanding gallopers including Shogun Lodge, Filante, Super Impose, Triton, Gunsynd, Sky High and Noholme to name a few. This year just fifteen runners headed by multiple group one winner Shoot Out on 58kgs will face the starter. Although the field is small, there is plenty of quality not only amongst the proven gallopers but also among the lighter weighted runners.
Just half a kilo under Shoot Out is 2010 Doncaster Handicap winner and 2009 Epsom runner up Rangirangdoo weighted on 57.5kgs. They both ooze class but do have history against them. In the last 20 years just two horses have carried 57kgs or more to victory in the Epsom Handicap, Filante (57kgs in 1996) and Racing To Win (57kgs in 2006). But both those gallopers brought similar Timeform ratings into the race. For example Filante 125 and Racing To Win 126 are comparable to Shoot Out on 126 and Rangirangdoo 125.
The Epsom Handicap is a time honoured race steeped in history. Champion trainer Gai Waterhouse will be aiming for a record equalling seventh win in the Epsom Handicap - joining her late father T J Smith on that tally if one of her three entries Fat Al, Kontiki Park or Wild And Proud are successful. That is some record considering racing's first lady only took out her trainer's licence in 1992.
Last year's winner Secret Admirer is lining up again to defend her title aiming to become just the 15th mare to win the event since 1865.
A more telling statistic might be her capacity to win back-to-back Epsom Handicaps. Just six horses have been able to achieve that feat, Desert War (2004/5), Super Impose (1990/1), Toi Port (1063/4), Chatham (1932/3), Melodrama (1907/8) and Masquerade (1882/3).
However the daunting task that awaits Secret Admirer is that no mare has ever won the race back to back.
There is much on the line this afternoon, but weight adjusted Timeform ratings point to a very tight finish between Fat Al and Ambidexter, both gallopers rated 144. Not surprising as the pair fought out a nose finish in the G2 Theo Mark Quality over 1400m at Rosehill three weeks back. Forced to split the pair I am leaning towards a record equalling win by champion trainer Gai Waterhouse with the improving four-year-old Fat Al.
This fellow has raced twice since a spell and fits the "profile" of big Randwick 1600m winners. He suffered a narrow defeat when resuming in the Theo Marks quality over 1400m at Rosehill then finished a closing third last Saturday in the Shannon Stakes over 1500m also at Rosehill when a very short odds on favourite. There was much conjecture from track watchers prior to his first up run that he had not trialled impressive enough, however those fears were quickly dispelled just failing to hold off Ambidexter.
It is worth noting the Theo Marks has been an integral part of the Epsom lead up form for seven of the last ten winners. Last Saturday Fat Al was ridden out of his comfort zone off the speed and was found with plenty to do turning for home. Racing on the inside portion of the track, that had been a "no go" zone all day for jockeys, Fat Al could not quicken when the sprint went on but ground away solidly in the closing stages.
Actually despite being beaten, Fat Al managed to improve his Timeform rating, a clear sign of more to come this afternoon. Fat Al is unbeaten in two starts on his home Randwick track, has won over 2000m, an asset a lot of Epsom winners have going into the race and tumbles 6 kgs this afternoon. Fat Al is third up from a spell and 30% of all Epsom winners in the last 20 years were in that state. Four-year-olds have won 70% of all Epsom handicaps in the same period.
With winning rider Tommy Berry taking over (Nash Rawiller cannot make the weight), I can see Fat Al ridden much more aggressively this time and take plenty of holding out. For Berry who won his first G1 aboard Epaulette in the recent Golden Rose, it could be a case of third time lucky in the Epsom. The talented young hoop has had two previous rides, the best result being third on Sacred Choice in 2010.
The clear danger is the Peter Snowden-trained Ambidexter equally rated with Fat Al on weight adjusted Timeform ratings on 144. Tried as a middle distance galloper late in his three-year-old career where he raced with distinction in races like the G1 Rosehill Guineas (fourth) and G2 Frank Packer Plate (second to Fat Al), Amidexter will be kept to shorter distances this campaign, signalling the 1600m of the Epsom should be an ideal distance for him.
After a Randwick trial, Ambidexter resumed in the Theo Marks quality with a nose defeat of Fat Al and the pair meet on the same weight terms again this afternoon. Ambidexter will improve again off the Theo Marks run and it is worth noting his close up fourth in the Rosehill Guineas won by Laser Hawk from Ocean Park. That form line has already held up in Melbourne this spring. Stable rider Kerrin McEvoy who like Berry has had just two previous rides in the Epsom will again have the mount. A win would give both Snowden and McEvoy their first Epsom success.
Another slight negative for Ambidexter is that 18 past winners of the Epsom Handicap when run over 1600m have all had at least two runs from a spell going into the race.
As we have already seen Secret Admirer faces a Herculian task in the history stakes. However if she returns to her best form her ratings stand up here, coming in just a pound behind the aforementioned pair on weight adjusted Timeform ratings. The mare has not won a race since the Epsom last year. That was 371 days ago but in her defence she has still managed high rating efforts like her narrow second in the G1 Coolmore Stakes under a record equalling weight and her close third in the G1 George Ryder Stakes.
Secret Admirer has raced three times since a spell coming off a closing third in the G1 George Main Stakes over 1600m at Warwick Farm last start behind Shoot Out. That remains an excellent form line and she meets both Shoot Out and Rangirangdoo better at the weights this afternoon.
Two horses at good odds for the multiples are Said Com (weight adjusted rating 142) and Kontiki Park (weight adjusted rating 141).
Said Com from the powerful Chris Waller stable has had an interesting preparation for the race and is fifth run back from a spell this afternoon. Waller is no stranger to winning big mile races at Randwick having previously prepared two Doncaster winners, however the Epsom has eluded him to date. Apart from Said Com, Waller will also start multiple group one and last start George Main Stakes winner Shoot Out and 2010 Doncaster winner Rangirangdoo. However Said Com on 52kgs does have a nice weight pull off his better performed stablemates and that may give him a slight advantage. After winning easily fresh up over 1250m at Canterbury he failed when a short price favourite next time out behind Kontiki Park at Rosehill. A sixth in the Tramway Handicap followed before a solid closing second to Steps In Time over 1400m in the Bill Ritchie Handicap a fortnight back.
Said Com is yet to win at Randwick placing at each of his two runs there but it was the scene of his highest rating effort when runner up in the G1 Randwick Guineas over the 1600m behind Mosheen. A repeat of that run sees him right in the finish and historically the Randwick Guineas has been a good guide to the big Randwick mile races.
Kontiki Park carries the Gai Waterhouse polish. He comes into the race fourth up form a spell which is statistically significant in itself. Half the winners in the last 20 years have been in that state. Kontiki Park's first two runs back from a spell were great efforts but it may pay to ignore his last run at Newcastle in the Cameron Handicap where luck deserted him.
Enjoy another great Epsom renewal. Off Time: 07.00.
Recommendation
Back Fat Al @ $5.50
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