Big Sam's West Ham can build on their formidable home record
Stats expert Andrew Atherley crunches the numbers on Sunday's match between West Ham and Swansea, and Southampton's home tie with in-form Manchester United on Monday night...
West Ham offer the best value on this weekend's Premier League programme, as they look distinctly overpriced for their home game against Swansea on Sunday.
The reason for the proximity of the two teams in the match betting is understandable, given that there is little separating them in the table, but it is arguable that West Ham should be considerably shorter than 2.447/5 for the win.
In fact, around 2.26/5 would be a fair price based on the respective form lines.
West Ham are building an excellent record at Upton Park. Having lost their opening two home games (1-0 to Tottenham and 3-1 to Southampton) they have had four wins and a draw from their last five, which includes victories over Manchester City and Liverpool.
The Hammers' only failure to take three points during that recent run was in a 0-0 against Aston Villa, which was their sole blank at home since the Tottenham defeat. That is significant, showing how difficult they are hard to stop unless their opponents keep a clean sheet.
This season West Ham have won four out of five when scoring at home, but that form line stretches back even further. In the whole of 2014, the Hammers have won nine out of 12 when scoring at home (the other three matches ended in defeat but all by good sides, pre-slump Newcastle and Liverpool last season and Southampton this season).
Much appears to rest, then, on whether West Ham score and they have a good chance against Swansea, who have kept only two clean sheets in 13 away games under Garry Monk. Both of those shutouts were achieved this season, which is encouraging, but they came at the expense of a reduced threat from Swansea (both were in goalless draws, against Sunderland and Everton).
Swansea's normal game is commendably positive, but that does make them vulnerable on the road against the better sides. Since the start of last season their away record against top-half teams is W2 D2 L9, without a single clean sheet, and that is a defeat rate of 69%.
Monk has improved that record slightly (W2 D2 L4 away to top-half teams since he took charge) but still the defeat rate is 50% and there has been no clean sheet.
Swansea are dangerous enough to threaten West Ham in an open contest, but the home side's record in scoring games puts the odds firmly in their favour.
There is also a hint that Sam Allardyce knows how to counteract Swansea's style of play. Having lost 3-0 in his first encounter against them at the Liberty stadium, West Ham have kept clean sheets in three meetings since and have won both home games (1-0 and 2-0).
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Many will suspect Southampton's bubble has burst after back-to-back defeats by Manchester City and Arsenal, but they have a good chance to dispel the doubts at home to Manchester United on Monday night.
Southampton have lost six out of 26 at home since the start of last season but three of those defeats have been against title challengers - Liverpool and Chelsea last season and Manchester City this season - and that leaves them with a solid record against the rest of the division.
What is clear is that it takes a top-notch away side to win at St Mary's. Against teams ranked outside the top six on away form (last season and so far this season) Southampton's home record is W13 D4 L2.
That suggests United will have to raise their game to win on Monday night. They have won only one out of six on the road this season and currently rank 12th on away form.
Southampton rate good value for the win at 2.8615/8 or at least to steady the ship with some kind of positive result on the draw no bet at 2.01/1.
Recommended Bets
Back West Ham to beat Swansea at 2.447/5(1pt)
Back Southampton on Draw No Bet v Manchester United at 2.01/1 (1pt)
2014/15 P/L
Staked: 32 pts
Returned: 34.2 pts
P/L: +2.2 pts
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