Will Greenwood: Harlequins and Toulon offer early value

Who are you backing for Heineken Cup 2012/13 glory?
Europe's premier rugby tournament returns this weekend and Betfair Ambassador Will Greenwood has got some interesting ideas about where the value lies in 2012/13...
If you only have one rugby bet this season then defending champions Leinster are the team for you to back in the Heineken Cup. Odds of 5.39/2 aren't bad, truth be told.
We don't actually have a clear idea of Leinster's form because they're fourth in the RaboDirect Pro12 behind Ulster, Scarlets and Glasgow. Obviously, they're better than those three and we all know that Joe Schmidt's team build their season around Heineken Cup domination. That's why they've won three of the last four.
If you're looking for value, however, then two teams stand out. You might say Harlequins have never done anything in this competition but there is new purpose about them, following their unexpected Premiership title win, and they are in the easiest pool. Seriously, they'd get a tougher draw in the Amlin Challenge Cup. An exaggeration? I don't think so.
Quins may not be a better team than Leicester - that's why I've backed Richard Cockerill's men to regain the Premiership - but they are a shorter price than the Tigers because, up against Biarritz, Connacht and Zebre, Chris Robshaw and co. are almost certain to reach the quarter-finals. Whereas Leicester face both Toulouse and an experienced Ospreys outfit.
The other team I fancy are Toulon. My thinking here is similar to my reasons for backing Harlequins ahead of Leicester. At 8.415/2, Jonny Wilkinson's team are longer than Toulouse but Toulon strengthened in the summer and the word is they're aiming to pull off a remarkable French title and Heineken Cup double. It'll be tough but they're my other pre-kick off bet.
I might sound like I'm sending out mixed messages but experienced punters know that the key to betting on the Heineken at this stage is to ask yourself who has the best chance of reaching the quarter-finals. Once we have a last eight, you can reassess, but for now that's the wise way to go.
There is one major contender I haven't discussed - the bright yellow elephant in the room, you might say. Last season, I got on Clermont early and stuck with them right through to their narrow semi-final defeat to Leinster. They were unlucky to fall short, especially after destroying Saracens at Vicarage Road in the quarters.
Perhaps the church bells were out of tune in Bordeaux when Leinster came to town, or maybe Clermont wilted under the expectations in their centenary year. They have an horrendous pool this time - with Leinster, again, Llanelli Scarlets and debutants Exeter - but they might benefit from less pressure and I'm having small stakes at 8.615/2. They will win this competition one day and, when they do, I intend to collect.
Recommended Bets
Back Harlequins at 12.5n/a to win the Heineken Cup
Back Toulon at 8.415/2 to win the Heineken Cup
Back Clermont (small stakes) at 8.615/2 to win the Heineken Cup
Pool Bets
Back Munster at 2.526/4 to win Pool 1
Back Toulouse at 2.021/1 to win Pool 2
Back Harlequins at 1.758/11 to win Pool 3
Back Ulster at 1.774/5 to win Pool 4
Back Leinster at 1.695/7 to win Pool 5 (w/ saver on Clermont 2.52)
Toulon to win Pool 6 but no bet at 1.528/15