вторник, 9 октября 2012 г.

Cesarewitch Handicap: Flame to burn brightest of all

Countrywide Flame won the Triumph Hurdle back in March
Timeform's Tony McFadden takes an ante-post look at the Cesarewitch, set to take place at Newmarket on Saturday...
First run in 1839, the Cesarewitch can boast a rich heritage, regarded by many as one of the most prestigious handicaps in the calendar. However, even taking the history and tradition of the race into account, it is difficult to escape the conclusion that the Cesarewitch, a race largely contested by tough and mature veterans of the sport, is little more than a squatter on the Future Champions' Day card, obdurately refusing to move. Times have changed and the race no longer fits in with the current format, but the Cesarewitch has been around for so long you cannot simply unceremoniously shunt it to one side; it is in some ways the horseracing equivalent of Ken Barlow.
Putting aside the rights and wrongs of having an ultra-competitive staying handicap as the centrepiece on a day designed to unearth would-be champions, the Cesarewitch is still a fantastic betting heat and, therefore, deserving of our attention. Unsurprisingly, a 34-runner handicap over 18 furlongs puts a great emphasis on stamina and we are looking for a horse that will not only stay the trip, but actually relish it and improve for the marathon test.
Still very much unexposed as a stayer, Countrywide Flame occupies a position towards the head of the ante-post market, currently trading at 11.010/1. Already a champion of sorts, having prevailed in the Triumph Hurdle, the premier race for four-year-old hurdlers, Countrywide Flame perhaps didn't gain the recognition he deserved for that victory, his long-priced success attributed to him outstaying his rivals in a race that became a real rest. However, his second-placed effort at Aintree demonstrated that if he was flattered in the Triumph it was only marginally so, once again impressing with the tenacity he showed in the closing stages.
Given the obvious reserves of stamina possessed by Countrywide Flame, it was no surprise to see John Quinn's gelding return over two miles at Chester in September, swerving the middle-distance challenges that he had been set last year. A comfortable victory ensued and, although he only had three-quarters of a length in hand at the line, the winning margin didn't reflect the true extent of his superiority. That effort should have left him spot on and, granted a favourable draw, it would be little surprise to see him start as outright favourite.
Repeater is another prominent in the betting that deserves a mention. Sir Mark Prescott's three-year-old shot to prominence with a much-improved effort in the Group 2 Doncaster Cup, seemingly relishing the 18-furlong trip. He tops the Timeform weight-adjusted ratings for the Cesarewitch, but there is a school of thought that suggests he may have been flattered at Doncaster, and it is also worth noting that he does need to bounce back from a disappointing run when turned out quickly trying to secure a penalty. If sneaking in at the foot of the weights he would be an interesting contender, although others perhaps rank as more reliable propositions.
Perhaps one such reliable contender is the David Simcock-trained Montaser, a progressive three-year-old that has really thrived since competing in contests that have placed a premium on stamina. David Simcock's charge has been brought along steadily this year and it would be folly to rule out further improvement. In fact, with the possible exception of his inexperience in large-field contests, it is very difficult to find any obvious flaw in his profile.
In a race as competitive as the Cesarewitch there has to be some value further down the field and one at a bigger price that takes the eye is Eagle Rock. Tom Tate's charge currently trades at 30.029/1, a price which appears to be on the generous side based on his most recent effort when third in the Cesarewitch Trial. As the name of the race perhaps invites, Eagle Rock was ridden with Saturday's contest very much in mind. Held up in the early stages and given plenty to do, Eagle Rock shaped better than the bare result, responding well in the closing stages to finish in the frame, finding only a pair of progressive rivals too strong. He has been running creditably in handicaps all year and, guaranteed to stay the trip, he looks likely to give another good account.
It is unsurprising that trainers renowned for their exploits with National Hunt horses have targeted this extreme test and David Pipe still has four engaged, including last year's seventh-placed horse Beyond. Beaten on merit last year and not obviously well treated, Beyond would not be top of the shortlist, but it could be a mistake to completely write him off given that he seems to run well fresh and won't fail for lack of stamina. Ultimately, it would be somewhat of a surprise were he to prove good enough, but he is certainly capable of running on into the frame.
A place in advance of Beyond last year, Sentry Duty was finishing sixth for the second year in succession. Nicky Henderson's one-time smart hurdler has been most disappointing of late, but, consequently, has slipped in the weights. If he can be cajoled into producing something like his best he would look well treated.
To summarise, both Countrywide Flame and Montaser have the potential to improve faced with the stamina test the Cesarewitch looks sure to provide. Narrow preference would be for Countrywide Flame, whose admirable consistency and tenacity, which was evident during a highly successful National Hunt campaign, swings the balance in his favour. At a bigger price, Eagle Rock caught the eye over C&D last time and could reward those supporting him at generous odds.
Recommendation:
Back Countrywide Flame @ 11.010/1 in the Cesarewitch

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