Newell's false number nine Ignacio Scocco
Ed Malyon previews all this weekend's Torneo Inicial matches...
Friday
Lans v Unin Santa Fe - 23:10
This is probably the biggest gulf in class that we'll see this weekend, with Lans having negotiated a tough start to the season fairly well despite being mid-table, and Unin still bottom and without a win. The hosts have a wealth of quality players and will be boosted by the return of Mario Regueiro, who provides goals from midfield. They have also moved to address their lack of goals by dropping Gonzalo Castillejos as his lone striker after his dry spell for Lans extended to just one goal in twenty-two games for the club. He shone on loan at Rosario Central last season, grabbing 26 goals in the second tier, but he is replaced in the team by the more dynamic Silvio Romero after his manager's patience wore through, and Lans look great value at 1.758/11
Argentinos Juniors v Tigre - 01:15
Tigre are without a win and struggling yet Argentinos' inconsistency means that the hosts are still outside even money 2.285/4 for the home win. Like Lans, Argentinos had been given a really difficult run of fixtures to start the season, but rather than coming out of them and winning the easy games, their lack of momentum has seen them throw away a 3-1 lead at home to hapless Unin and then get ripped open by an unspectacular Atletico Rafaela side. Leonardo Astrada has gambled on a youthful midfield to see his side through the season, and with this punt comes up-and-down results - obviously this has contributed to their record of three wins, three draws and three losses. Tigre have drawn five of their games, and some of those were good results gained by holding out good teams at home but their away record is not so strong, and laying the visitors is your safest option if you can't afford back this growing Argentinos side when they could have one of their off days.
Saturday
San Martn de San Juan v All Boys - 18:00
This looks like one of those games where you may simply need to decide who is the 'least worst' of the two. San Martn have been horrendous for a while now, but have picked two random 4-0 home wins from nowhere in recent weeks and a draw at La Bombonera - making them favourites for this game. All Boys' form is boosted by a win against Lans last week but this long trip and their form on the road don't bode well against the Miners when they seem to be finding their feet, and despite Caprari's (entirely unjust) unavailability through suspension they look good for a possible win here. Unfortunately, there's not enough in the price to back a team that has been unforgivably poor for a while, so unless the home win heads north of 2.68/5 it may be worth staying away from the result for now. Instead, with San Martn's new-found scoring habits and All Boys hosting the league's top scorer, it might be a game for backing the overs.
San Lorenzo v Arsenal - 20:15
Reigning champions Arsenal started well, but four losses on the spin has seen them plummet down the table where they're just two points ahead of Saturday's hosts San Lorenzo. Losing last year's strike partnership of Mauro Obolo and Luciano Leguizamon has not helped Arsenal's cause, but more damaging has been trying to replace them with last year's reserve Dario Benedetto who just doesn't seem good enough for this league. Just one goal in those four consecutive defeats speaks its own story, but are San Lore good enough to take advantage?
Losing their last three suggests that the Crows are in just as bad a state as Arsenal, but that's not strictly true (as long as we're only discussing on-the-pitch matters) with those defeats coming against the top three. It's hard to see much light at the end of Arsenal's tunnel right now, and it's not just because of the legions of classy San Lorenzo players standing in the way. We said San Lore may fly up the table when all the new signings jell and Saturday is the perfect opportunity to get another vital win. 2.3211/8 is about right here.
Estudiantes La Plata v Quilmes - 22:30
Estu 2.01/1 are one of the sides whose results actually make sense in this league. They have lost games to good teams, drawn with a team that's roughly their level and beaten the others. Home and away alters the expectations but otherwise they're pretty much doing how you'd expect them to and as the players continue to adapt to Diego Cagna's system and are pulled from the Alejandro Sabella hangover that has lasted two years, they may be in with a shout of the top four.
Quilmes shocked everyone on the opening day, thrashing Boca, but since then they have been very 'meh' with a touch of 'oh' and 'ouch' chucked in. They'd managed to steal 1-1 draws from each of their away games until San Martn beat them 4-0 a fortnight ago, and even though it's a moderately tempting 6.611/2 to happen again, predictable Estudiantes should fulfil expectations and edge this one.
Coln Santa Fe v Racing Club - 00:20
Read this week's big match preview here
Sunday
Belgrano v Boca Juniors - 19:00
Belgrano have had a really difficult fixture list to contend with in their first few games but have come out of it just three points off the top of the league. Rather stealthily, the Cordoba side are putting together a potential title challenge and Boca Juniors are the next scalp in their sights.
It must be a long time since Boca played a league game where the bookmaker didn't have them as favourites before kick-off and, quite frankly, it's a mystery how they are so short for this one 2.588/5.
Boca have managed to get results while playing pretty badly but even the results have started to dry up with defeat at Lans followed by an embarrassing draw at home to San Martn. Meanwhile, a draw in Quilmes put an end to Belgrano's three game winning streak but they continue to quietly about business, and this could be another severed head to pop on their fence, lay Boca Juniors.
Independiente v Atletico Rafaela - 21:15
Rafaela have surprised many, and continue to do so by being in the top half. Their current run of three wins in four has put them there after a poor start but it's not been against the toughest of opponents and the feeling is that the only way from here is down for La Crema.
Independiente are so poor that they only just scraped past Unin last week, and their main problem is a lack of goals or creativity - which is a fairly big problem. Ernesto Faras got both last week, but he's missed so many chances this season that confidence in him is still low. There is simply no way of knowing which way this game will go, but the unders may be worth a look.
Newell's Old Boys v Velez Sarsfield - 21:15
What a game this promises to be, first against third in a humdinger of a clash at the Marcelo Bielsa stadium. As befits the great man whose name adorns the stadium, these two sides like to create an attacking spectacle and leaders Newell's could have plenty more goals this season if they opted to play an out-and-out striker. That said, Ignacio Scocco's performance as a false nine has been exemplary, scoring and creating goals for his new team even if he has also missed a whole host of chances. Velez have shown signs of real potential of late, but up against the best defence in the league, they look a lay here.
River Plate v Godoy Cruz - 23:30
Godoy Cruz are just three points off the top and comfortably above River, but any game at the Monumental will inevitably see La Banda Roja kick off as favourites, with Sunday night's game no exception. The home side 2.021/1 thrashed Arsenal last week but there is a feeling of papering over the cracks about events at River recently. The criticism levelled at manager Matias Almeyda is justified, and very little of the thumping win against the defending champs was down to him.
Godoy Cruz have impressed this year but away from Mendoza they have been atrocious, with just one win in their last sixteen away games, and that came against lowly Unin.
River will continue to be weak in the full-back areas but their visitors this week aren't particularly a side that is set up to make the most of that, and although the hosts look like they could probably sneak a win just by virtue of having the class of Ponzio, Mora and Trezeguet, they are still too flawed and therefore short to back while they are on the evens button.
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