понедельник, 22 октября 2012 г.

Timeform UK SmartPlays: Monday October 22

We're at Plumpton for our last two SmartPlays today

We have three SmartPlays from Pontefract and Plumpton that can hopefully brighten up a grey start to the week.

We're starting in West Yorkshire, with a selection in Pontefract's first race at 14:20, a nursery over a mile. Obviously, a number of these two-year-olds arrive with potential to do better, but none more so than the Reg Hollinshead-trained Moorway. Given three maiden runs in little over a month during August and September, Moorway gave a much stronger hint towards his true ability when fourth at Wolverhampton on his debut in these events, again not given an overly hard time before finishing strongly. There's no doubt that 10 furlongs and perhaps even further will suit in time, but the stiff track and testing conditions will make up for that on this occasion and, with him having been dropped 2 lbs since last time, he looks handicapped to strike.

Our next two bets come from Plumpton, starting with a two-mile handicap hurdle at 15:10. It's probably a better race than most of a similar grade, with several less than exposed, but one stands out as potentially miles ahead of the handicapper. Almost exactly two years ago, Oriental Cat was competing in near-smart handicaps for John Gosden, yet he now finds himself in a Plumpton handicap hurdle (off a BHA mark of 94) for Venetia Williams. That mark is probably harsh strictly on the bare facts of what Oriental Cat has achieved over hurdles thus far, but there looked to be much more promise there when he completed for the first time recently at Uttoxeter. Williams is having a better autumn than is often the case and Oriental Cat is just the type she often does so well with in handicaps. If he's learned further from Uttoxeter he could make a mockery of his opening mark.

The methodology for our final selection, which runs in a handicap chase over and extended two miles at 16:40, is fairly simple. It's a weak, four-runner race with few in form or well handicapped, the clear exception being Osmosia. She's been running well over hurdles of late, winning twice (including here) and running a career-best last time out. If anything, she's been a slightly better chaser over the course of her career, and if she can bring her fine form back to this sphere she should be odds-on for this contest, but as it stands she can be backed comfortably at odds against.

Timeform SmartPlays

Back Moorway @ 9.617/2 in the 14:20 at Pontefract
Back Oriental Cat @ 6.86/1 in the 15:10 at Plumpton
Back Osmosia @ 2.707/4 in the 16:40 at Plumpton

Timeform's Horses To Follow for the 2012/3 NH season is out now! Get an interview with Donald McCain and ante-post advice as well as 65 horses to follow from Britain and Ireland. Get your copy now!

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