The X Factor 2012: Rylan to survive with Holloway's help

Niccolo Machiavelli wrote the manual by which reality-show producers live, and he was Italian, too.

During The X Factor in 2011, betting.betfair tipster Jack Houghton turned a starting bank of 1,000 into a whopping 1,900. Two years previously he returned a 17-point profit to anyone following his recommended bets. Last year, though, unlikely victors Little Mix inflicted a gaping wound on the betting bank of the Sage of the X-Factor (he makes us call him that). Will he return to winning ways this year?

As dyed-in-the-wool X Factor fans we are used to debating the various merits and demerits of contestants and judges, but last week, for the first time, we were forced to consider the name of another, Richard Holloway, who, heretofore, had been known about - lurking in our subconscious as "The Producer" - but who had remained a faceless presence, only mentioned, anonymously, when the show had lurched into another production or voting controversy.

On Sunday's show, though, things changed. Midway through Carolynne Poole's sing-off number, visible to all television viewers, someone, who we now know to be the aforementioned Richard Holloway, aka The Producer, sidled up to Louis Walsh and whispered something in his ear. And in so doing, Holloway catapulted himself into the public eye.

Moments later, in what has been billed the most controversial scandal to hit the X Factor in the last week, Walsh inexplicably chose to send the bottom two to DEADLOCK, despite seemingly having first requested that Carolynne be saved, a request that host Dermot O'Leary refused to accept. Now reliant on the result of the public vote, Carolynne was eliminated, Gary Barlow, her mentor, stormed off in a huff, and the lovable Rylan Clark survived another week.

So what do we know of this Holloway character? Well, after much tireless research (looking on FremantleMedia's website), I have uncovered some startling truths about this Machiavellian, Iago-esque, Svengali character (yes, I'm very well-read). I've learnt that Holloway has worked with, "Danny Kaye, Gene Kelly, Julie Andrews, Barbara Streisand and... The Muppets." Which I think is a bit harsh. I mean, Louis tries his hardest.

I've also discovered that Holloway is not only responsible for the X Factor, the epicentre of televisual artistic worth, but that he has also contributed Celebrity Squares, Supermarket Sweep and Family Fortunes to the cultural canon of this country. And, apparently, he is a "lover of all things Italian." Which is why he can be found at weekends slaughtering Christians whilst dressed up as Mussolini.

But enough of Holloway. As central as he clearly is to the annual unfoldings of the show, I'm here to point you in the direction of profit.

In the Winner market, Ella Henderson still looks the most likely, but as Joe pointed out when commenting on Mike Norman's latest X-Factor offering, a contestant being such a short price - she is now 1.865/6 - so early in the show, seems ridiculous. With that in mind, I'm relatively happy with my initial picks, and am going in again on Kye Sones and (the favourite of One Direction) James Arthur, at 14.013/1 and 11.5n/a respectively. Henderson aside, they represent the best voice in the competition (Kye), and the most artistically interesting (James).

To answer Eliot Pollak's question about Jahmene Douglas, I don't think the UK is ready for his overbearing vocal gymnastics, and I'm surprised to see him as low as 8.007/1; but I do share Eliot's enthusiasm for Jade Ellis, and could see her lasting a few weeks, although her performance on Saturday was so heavily reverbed that it's hard to say with any certainty how good her voice actually is.

In this week's Bottom Two market, Lucy Spraggan should be safe. Her grandmother died this week and she'll get a stack of sympathy votes as a result. That leaves Rylan Clark (2.447/5), Christopher Maloney (2.9015/8) and District3 (GMD3) (2.9015/8) as the most likely candidates; and, given that Rylan is almost certainly going to be allowed every advantage by Holloway in an attempt to keep him in, I'll be splitting my bet between the other two, in the hope of a double pay-out.

Recommendations:
1-point back James Arthur at 11.5n/a in Winner market.
1-point back Kye Sones at 14.013/1 in Winner market.
1-point back Christopher Maloney at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market.
1-point back District3 at 2.9015/8 in Bottom Two market.

Previous recommendations:
1-point back James Arthur at 10.09/1 in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back Kye Sones at 11.010/1 in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back Union J at 16.5n/a in Winner market - OPEN.
1-point back Groups at 6.806/1 in Winning Category market - OPEN.
1-point lay Christopher Maloney at 1.412/5 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.
1-point back Times Red at 16.015/1 in Wildcard winner market - LOST.

Profit/Loss so far: -1.41pts