The Big Match Tactical View: Norwich v Arsenal

Will Gervinho provide Arsenal's main goalscoring threat?

Norwich are yet to record a Premier League victory under Chris Hughton - Michael Cox doesn't expect that to change this weekend.

Norwich v Arsenal, Saturday 5:30, ESPN.

Match Odds: Norwich 6.611/2, The Draw 4.57/2, Arsenal 1.584/7.

As tactical battles go, this should a particularly predictable contest. Arsene Wenger is a philosopher rather than a tactician - once he's got a squad in place and has them playing the way he wants, he rarely makes pointed decisions from one game to the next. Chris Hughton, similarly, favours a more consistent approach than predecessor Paul Lambert, a serial formation switcher.

Essentially, one key decision that will affect the formation battle - does Hughton play a second striker like Simeon Jackson, or a playmaker like Wes Hoolahan? The former has generally been fielded in more winnable games, the latter when Norwich need to compete in the centre of midfield. This is surely the second type of match - Arsenal will look to get the ball down and play, and although I don't think there's much chance of Norwich stopping Arsenal dominating possession, Hughton will want to prevent Mikel Arteta having the run of the midfield.

With Abou Diaby expected to be unavailable and Jack Wilshere not yet match fit despite coming through a reserve game in midweek, Wenger is set to continue with Aaron Ramsey alongside Arteta in the centre of midfield. The Welshman was unfairly criticised when clearly exhausted at times last season, but when used in a deep role his defensive limitations can be exposed, and while Arteta has adjusted well to a deeper role after Alex Song's departure, Hoolahan might get space between the lines. Steve Bould has Arsenal playing much more compact than last year, but it's still something to watch out for.

Elsewhere, Kieran Gibbs limped off during Arsenal's win over West Ham a fortnight ago, ruling him out of the England squad. If he's not fit, and Andre Santos starts instead, Norwich will fancy their chances down the right - the side of the pitch they focus their passing down anyway. Robert Snodgrass has performed well so far this season, although was surprisingly omitted at Chelsea. He'll be back in the side here, and I expect him to run directly with the ball - although he's too keen to cut inside onto his favoured left foot.

Both coaches have a decision to make about their preferred forward - Grant Holt hasn't looked as sharp as last season, but scored at Chelsea and should retain his place ahead of Steve Morison. I think Holt will look to bully Arsenal's centre-backs, meaning Laurent Koscielny - dropped in favour of Per Mertesacker after poor defending from set-pieces against Chelsea - is unlikely to return. Holt's movement towards the far post when the ball is wide often catches out defenders, and Arsenal's noticeable narrowness means their centre-backs might have to defend lots of crosses.

At the other end, Wenger has a choice between the pace and movement of Gervinho, and the more permanent penalty box threat of Olivier Giroud. Against a Norwich side that sit deep in two banks of four, I think he might choose the Frenchman - especially considering he scored a fine goal at Upton Park last time out, then hit a crucial equaliser against Spain on Wednesday. Gervinho might have to battle with Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Theo Walcott for a place on the right, where Javier Garrido lacks pace and could be exposed.

In all, I think Arsenal will dominate possession and should expect to win the game. Norwich conceded nine goals in total against Liverpool and Chelsea, but Hughton has never been one to defend by attacking more positively - he'll have worked upon shape and structure in the past couple of weeks, and one benefit he has over Wenger is that he lost fewer players to the international break. Still, this should be an Arsenal victory - I'll back them to be ahead at half-time and full-time, at 2.47/5.

I also can't ignore the card statistics from the season so far - Arsenal have picked up six bookings from seven matches, Norwich just two. Lee Probert isn't one to flash cards unnecessarily, so I'll back 5 points and under at 2.26/5.

Recommended bets:
Arsenal / Arsenal in Half Time / Full Time at 2.47/5
5 points and under at 2.26/5