понедельник, 22 октября 2012 г.

Kempton Placepot: Sunday October 21

Jumps racing returns to Kempton today

Keith Melrose tackles the Placepot on Kempton's first jumps meeting of the season.

14:15 - This first leg should be fairly straightforward, with everything looking in favour of Irish raider Fisher. He's a dual winner over hurdles already and, although he carries the resulting penalties in this race, remains top-rated on Timeform figures. He also gives the impression that a speed test will ultimately suit over timber, and that's exactly what he should find here on a sharp track under less-than-gruelling conditions.

14:45 - Few of these maiden chasers are especially trustworthy, to the point that a debutant over fences ranks as our safest conveyance to leg three. Sire de Grugy has always had the look of a chaser about him and he established himself as a smart handicap hurdler last season (third in the Imperial Cup), that much better than anything his rivals can muster. Banking would be a bit much, though, and next best is probably Grams And Ounces, who came to grief on his chasing debut but had done well enough up to that point to think that he can match his hurdles form so long as he learns from the experience.

15:20 - Even for a listed race, this looks a good novice hurdle for the time of year, with even the hurdling debutants looking well above average. It probably boils down to Once More Dubai and Spirit of Shankly for our purposes, with the hurdling experience of the former, a three-time winner at this level on the Flat, gets the edge.

15:50 - A treacherous handicap for Placepot punters, hardly any the type you'd rely upon. It says plenty that our two selections are the chicken-hearted Sadler's Star and the sketchy jumper Basoda, but the former has held his form fairly well of late and the latter has hinted that he's working up to form, much like his yard as a whole.

16:25 - Just the four runners in this minor event, but there's one we can rule out - namely First Avenue - so it's Brampour, Get Me Out of Here and Australia Day for us. The first two have clearly the best form between them, but the suspicion is that a sharp two miles will suit neither ideally, whereas Australia Day won this race impressively two years ago and is likely to be handed an easy lead to boot.

16:55 - The capitulation of likely favourite Shooters Wood last time is enough reason to leave him out, but there are plenty of others that fall into a similar category. One that doesn't is Soul Magic, who's making by far his furthest trip south following his fifth win at Cartmel last time. He's not simply a specialist at that course, either, but a sharp test does seem fairly important and in that sense Kempton won't be alien to him.

Selections:
14:15 - 1
14:45 - 5, 9
15:20 - 2
15:50 - 2, 5
16:25 - 2, 3, 4
16:55 - 14
= 12 lines

Timeform's Horses To Follow for the 2012/3 NH season is out now! Get an interview with Donald McCain and ante-post advice as well as 65 horses to follow from Britain and Ireland. Get your copy now!

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