Keeneland Saturday Preview: Books on balance in the Dixiana

Graeme thinks he's found one at Keeneland on Saturday

Graeme North takes a look at Keeneland's Saturday card, which is chock-full of quality races.

WOODFORD STAKES (off 15:13 local time, 20:13 BST)
Seven runners go to post for this G3 contest over five and a half furlongs on the turf but three horses stand out at the weights: Chamberlain Bridge, Great Mills and Bridgetown.
Veteran Chamberlain Bridge was a disappointing favourite in this race in 2010 before bouncing back to win the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (when Bridgetown was fourth) but he won this race in 2008 and his latest effort at Parx, when marginally ahead of Great Mills and which followed a win at Monmouth, suggested he is back to near his best.
Great Mills gets a small turnaround in the weights on this occasion but his good efforts are fewer and much further between anyway to be anything more than hopeful he will reverse the form and Bridgetown is probably a bigger threat. The Todd Pletcher inmate has taken a bit of time to come to hand this year having had just four runs but his latest win at Saratoga was his best performance of 2012. He might face some early pace pressure from longshot Ginplay but though he should soon get the better of that battle Chamberlain Bridge should edge him out if both are at their best and by our reckoning it should be Chamberlain Bridge that is favourite and not Bridgetown.

THOROUGHBRED CLUB OF AMERICA STAKES (15:45, 20:45 BST)
This six-furlong event for fillies and mares on the polytrack is at the mercy of 124-rated Groupie Doll. She has 10lb in hand of her nearest rival on Timeform ratings, comes here in the form of her life having returned from a summer break to get the better of a classy field at Presque Isle Downs last time and is just as effective on artificial surfaces as she is on dirt as her two G1 wins this year (one of them here) testify.
If there is a potential chink in her armour it's that she has never run at six furlongs, but the drop to six and a half at Presque Isle made no difference and there doesn't look anything among her eight rivals good enough to ruffle her. Deep closer Emma's Encore rather had the strongly-run G1 Prioress Stakes at Saratoga set up for her two starts back and might well get a similar scenario here with Honey Chile and Newstouse in the line-up, but that's probably little consolation as such a development would also suit Groupie Doll- an optimistic 1.8 on the Morning Line- at least as well.

FIRST LADY STAKES (16:17, 21:17 BST)
A weak race so far as G1 contests go with Timeform top-rated Tapitsfly worth 119 at best and that rating, achieved when winning the G1 Just A Game Stakes at Belmont three starts back, somewhat questionable anyway given she was allowed to pinch the race from the front. Worth 116 at best otherwise, Tapitsfly has finished nearer last than first since in two starts at Saratoga and might not be able to get to the front easily here with regular front runner Summer Soiree (who finished ahead of Tapitsfly at Saratoga) in opposition as well as the generally progressive Daisy Devine who ran to 117 when winning the G1 Jenny Wiley here back in April when Tapitsfly was third.
It might be given the small field that the lead won't be as hotly contested as it seems it might on paper but if there is one horse that hasn't been seen to best advantage since her win over Tapitsfly in the G2 Distaff Turf Mile at Churchill in May and looks the one to beat if getting a true pace again it is Hungry Island. She ran almost up to her best last time when best of the rest behind Zagora in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga and her credentials are just that bit more credible than most if things go her way.

DIXIANA BREEDERS' FUTURITY (16:49, 21:49 BST)
A maximum field and a very close contest in prospect as things stand with six of the runners covered by just 5lb on our ratings. Pataky Kid and Balance The Books set the standard but the form of the former's win in the G3 Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington last time out has already taken a couple of knocks and the latter's win in the G2 With Anticipation at Saratoga looks more the race to concentrate on.

Balance The Books, who had both the re-opposing Joha and Charming Kitten behind him that day, did well to win there at all after suffering problems in running in a race run to suit those that raced more prominently than he did, and there's a good chance that he's a fair bit better than that result implies. He seems sure to be involved in the finish and looks fair value at the forecast 6.

If there's one horse with the potential to improve enough to trouble him it's probably Tizracer from the Todd Pletcher barn. Six furlongs proved too sharp for him on debut but he looked a different proposition last time upped to a mile at Belmont winning in a very fast time and it's perhaps not surprising he's favourite on the Morning Line at 5.

SHADWELL TURF MILE (17:21, 22:21 BST)
The highlight of the Saturday card at Keeneland, or anywhere in North America over the weekend come to that, and for no other reason than it has attracted the best horse on the continent in Wise Dan. Not that the Americans seem fully aware of that yet as they ought to be - it was only midway through last month that he finally topped the NTRA poll for horse of the year despite having been demonstrably the leading older horse on any surface since last autumn. Neither does he as yet it seems possess a Frankel-like ability to scare off potential opposition but if any of his 11 rivals are to lower his colours under conditions that suit him ideally they will have to run to a figure around 133 given the regularity with which he runs 130s without always being extended.

Optimistic as their connections might be, the harsh fact is that not only are none of those rivals rated above 120 but with the possible exception of three-year-old Silver Max, who might well now be back at his best trip, none of them promise to be even though five of them besides Silver Max have scored already at Graded level. Wise Dan started a much shorter price than the Morning Line guide when beating Cityscape in the Woodbine Mile last time out and the 1.8 forecast here is once again unrealistic.

Recommended bet
1 pt win Balance The Books in the Dixiana if 6 or bigger