Jonathan Wilson: Can Abel steer Fluminense to glory?

Fred has been an excellent signing for Fluminense
With their rivals failing to put pressure on them, Fluminense are in a strong position to win the Brazilian title. Jonathan Wilson discusses the race and discusses this weekend's matches...
There are still 11 games remaining, but the Brazilian title race already feels as good as over. Fluminense stand six points clear at the top of the table and are now in to as little as 1.330/100 (not that that will bother anybody who followed this column's advice back in and backed them at 8.07/1). It's not just that they're grinding out results - they've won five of their last six and lost only one of their last 15 - it's that Atletico Mineiras, the early leaders, seem finally to have hit the buffers.
Ronaldinho's team were the great early season story. At one point they won seven in a row. There were 5-1s and 4-3s and 4-1s: goals and fun and invention and everything outsiders expect the Brazilian game to be about. But they've taken just two points from their last four games and won only two of their last ten. If they can't get back to winning ways against struggling Figueirense, whose brief rally has come to an end with three straight defeats, then their title challenge is surely over. The 3.55n/a available for them to win the title is evidence of a lack of liquidity in the market rather than any genuine chance of success.
Gremio, a further three points adrift in third and 7.26/1 for the title, have yet to put together any kind of consistent run and three back-to-back draws has allowed Fluminense to get away. Again, you feel they have to beat a Cruzeiro team without a win in six at the weekend or they too can be written off.
The one question mark against Fluminense before the Brasileirao began was their defending. They had won the bewilderingly complex Carioca championship but had at times looked vulnerable at the back, conceding an average of a goal a game. Given that most sides played weakened sides in the state championships, it's never wise to read too much into them, and Abel Braga has made them solid enough Fluminense have the best defensive record in Brazil, conceding just 18 goals in their
27 matches so far.
At the other end, Fred, the former Lyon forward, has been in superlative form, scoring 13 goals in 18 games and leading the line with intelligence and determination. He has clearly benefited from the return of the winger Wellington Nem from a loan spell at Figueirense (who correspondingly have struggled badly without him), although in Abel's 4-2-2-2 system, he operates almost as a second striker who pulls wide. The influence of Deco, floating in an attacking midfield role alongside Thiago Neves, has also been critical.
The only doubt is history. Abel, rightly or wrongly, has gained a reputation as a choker. In 2004, his Flamengo side lost the final of Copa do Brasil to the unfancied Santo Andre. A year later, he won the Carioca championship with Fluminense but lost in the Copa do Brasil final to the second-division side Paulista of Jundaiai. They led the Brasileirao at one point, but their failure to secure a point against Palmeiras on the final day meant they ended up finishing outside the top four and so missed out on the Copa Libertadores. He did begin to change that image the following season by winning the Libertadores and the Club World Cup with Internacional, but the memory in Rio de Janeiro is still of an eternal runner-up.
This weekend feels crucial. With Atletico Mineiro and Gremio both facing winnable fixtures - indeed, must-win fixtures - the gao could be cut. But if Fluminense can hold their rivals at arm's length, perhaps even stretch their advantage, the final 12 games of the season could come to see a victory parade. They face Botafogo, the side they beat 5-1 over two legs in the Carioca championship final.
They drew 1-1 when the sides met at the Olimpico in July but Botafogo have hit a miserable run of form, slipping to seventh in the table on the back of three draws and a defeat. In that regard the 1.9620/21 available on Fluminense to win looks decent value. And if they do, backing them at 8.07/1 to be champions back in May will look an extremely good bet.