Formula One Betting: Hamilton looking good for Japan

Will Lewis Hamilton be all smiles come Sunday?

Despite regularly opposing Lewis Hamilton in recent weeks, Ralph Ellis believes the British driver's impending departure from McLaren could well spur him on to success in Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix

Lewis Hamilton believes he's handled his split with McLaren well. "I don't feel as though I am going out through the back door," he said. "I am going out the front door happily."

That sounds great, but in the real world nothing will be the same again in his garage for the rest of the season. Sure, everybody will say the right things. And definitely, everybody will still be doing their best to be professional and get the car in the best condition for race days. But we have all gone through the little spell of working out notice at some time and we all know what it's like.

You try to concentrate on the job in hand, but your mind can't help wandering to the new challenge. And there's all sorts of admin to distract you, bits of paper to fill in and final payments for holiday or whatever to calculate. Where once you'd have stayed late to get work finished, you can't wait for clocking off time to pack up your bag and go home.

Do you really think it will be any different in a Formula One garage? Hamilton is still third favourite at 10.09/1 for the drivers championship but to be honest his chance went the moment he picked up the phone to call Martin Whitmarsh and tell him he was moving on. As Britain's former world number one himself has admitted, there are mechanics who have worked with him since 2007 who will be disappointed he couldn't also tell them in person about his plans.

If the mood that's created takes only a couple of per cent off the performance levels in the next six races, then that's more than enough to mean he has no chance of closing a 52-point gap to leader Fernando Alonso.

This week, however, it might be different. Hamilton is 3.1511/5 favourite in the early market for Sunday's Japanese Grand Prix, and after laying him for several races, this time my mouse is hovering over the "back" button instead.

In the early stages of the split, the adrenaline will be running for Lewis himself as he wants to prove to McLaren how much they'll miss him. And the garage will be equally keen to get the car in tip-top condition to send a signal to their star driver that he's just made the biggest mistake of his career.

The circuit at Suzuka is full of variety, with demanding corners that expose the strengths and weaknesses of every car and driver - especially the final 130R bend, a flat out left-hander taken at more than 200mph. McLaren have clearly been winning the development war in the last few weeks and if any car is likely to be the quickest around this circuit, then it's theirs.

As for a value bet, well Nico Rosberg is on the opposite face of the deal that moves a new star driver into Mercedes, and will be itching to prove that he mustn't be regarded as merely the team's number two next season.

Two weeks ago we picked up on the upgrades to the car's exhaust and Rosberg took advantage with a good drive in Singapore to finish fifth. A bit more time to hone the new technology might just make the German driver value at 10.09/1 for a podium finish.