Caulfield Guineas Preview: Pierro heads for history

Pierro (second left) can land the Caulfield Guineas.

Head of Timeform Australia Gary Crispe looks ahead to Saturday's Caulfield Guineas, due off at 06:10 BST...

In the last fifty years Australia has produced some outstanding three-year-olds, many of whom have contested the Group One Caulfield Guineas over 1600m. However the latest arrival on the scene the undefeated Pierro has the opportunity to stand above them all this afternoon.

The Gai Waterhouse-trained champion three-year-old will set a high bar for any future rival if as expected he wins the Caulfield Guineas. Not only will he join a small select group of Golden Slipper winners to have won the Guineas but he will be the first to achieve it undefeated.

Currently trading on Betfair at 1.26n/a, Pierro will be having his ninth race start this afternoon and will be third up into the Guineas after easy victories in the G2 Run To The Rose (1300m) at Rosehill and G2 Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley.

Just four outstanding horses have won the Golden Slipper - Caulfield Guineas double, Storm Queen (1966), Vain (1969), Luskin Star (1977) and Manikato (1978) but all had suffered defeat twice prior to their Guineas win. Of that group, only the filly Storm Queen had won the Bill Stutt Stakes at her start prior to the Guineas. Powerhouse colt Vain was upset by Daryl's Joy at short odds in the Stutt Stakes before turning the tables in the Guineas. Manikato had decimated older sprinters in what is now the G1 Rupert Clarke Stakes at his start prior to the Guineas and Luskin Star had won the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle beating older horses.

Pierro ended his two-year-old season the second highest Timeform rated juvenile in the last 50 years with a rating of 127 just 1 lb behind Luskin Star on 128. Pierro became the sixth juvenile in history to win Sydney's Triple Crown, joining Baguette (1970), Luskin Star (1977), Tierce (1991), Burst (1992) and Dance Hero (2004), his juvenile career closely resembling that of Luskin Star.

The two colts are the only juveniles in history to have won the LR Breeder's Plate, G2 Silver Slipper Stakes, G2 Todman Slipper Trial, G1 Golden Slipper, G1 ATC Sires' Produce Stakes and G1 Champagne Stakes. A win in the Caulfield Guineas would continue the uncanny likeness with Luskin Star's race record.

While some doubted Pierro's ability to recapture his juvenile form at three, those doubts were quickly dispelled when he resumed in the G3 Run To The Rose. Carrying a penalty he proved too strong for his rivals running to a Timeform rating of 123+. After a month off, Waterhouse sent him to Melbourne for the G2 Bill Stutt Stakes, a race he won in a canter running to 124+.

This afternoon he meets his "old enemies" Epaulette (12.50n/a) and All Too Hard (16.015/1) both of whom he has disposed off previously, Epaulette on three occasions and All Too Hard on two occasions. There is no reason to suggest either will turn things around this afternoon, Pierro looking to get back somewhere near his juvenile Timeform rating of 127 - a figure he must reach if he is to be chance in the G1 Cox Plate against older runners in a fortnight.

Epaulette has the honour of getting the closest of any horse to Pierro - a short half head in the Todman Slipper Trial but then failed in the Slipper itself and was almost three lengths astern Pierro in the Run To The Rose. Epaulette is the clear danger to Pierro. He has made steady improvement this preparation taking the G1 Golden Rose (1400m) two starts ago then last time out doing only what was necessary to win the Guineas Prelude over 1400m at Caulfield carrying a penalty.

On Timeform ratings, Epaulette currently sits five pounds behind Pierro which is around two lengths at level weights if both horses run to form. However I have a feeling Pierro has more to come and should at least have that much up his sleeve.

All Too Hard promised much as a juvenile running to a Timeform rating of 121p in winning the Pago Pago Stakes before a 1.8 length second to Pierro in the Sires' Produce Stakes at Randwick. The half-brother to champion mare Black Caviar was expected to build on that form as a three-year-old and pose a serious threat to the aforementioned pair. However it must be said that in three runs back from spell he has generally been disappointing reaching a Timeform rating of 117, 4 lb under his juvenile form.

Admittedly his tardiness at the start does him no favours and he will need to be on his best behaviour if he is to pose a threat to Pierro
Last start he was well supported in the G1 George Main Stakes over 1600m at Randwick against older campaigners. But after a slow start he was always struggling to get into the race finishing fourth behind Shoot Out, Rangirangdoo and Secret Admirer - all excellent performers under those conditions so on face value the run looked sound enough.

It is interesting to note that All Too Hard is undefeated the Melbourne way of going and whether there is anything in that, only time will tell.
Certainly on ratings, Epaulette and All Too Hard will provide the stiffest opposition that Pierro has faced this campaign. So in that regard the Guineas will enable a good measure of just where the star colt is, ratings wise.

Sit back and enjoy a history making race as punters flock to support the unbeaten colt who is poised to become the shortest priced favourite in Guineas history.

Visit timeform.com to get your FREE Timeform Card & Ratings for all races at Caulfield on Saturday.