Benfica v Barcelona: Visitors might not shine brightly at Stadium of Light

Barcelona might not make a fast start in Portugal

Tobias Gourlay expects Barcelona to down the Eagles, but there might be a bit of a struggle

Tuesday 19.45 BST (Live on Sky Sports 4)
Benfica 6.411/2 Barcelona 1.68/13 draw 4.3100/30

Match Odds

It's 12 matches and 30 years since Benfica beat a Spanish team in Europe. If they couldn't do it (twice) against Getafe five years ago, they probably can't do it against Barcelona, who went W8-D4-L0 away from home in group stages during the Pep Guardiola era.

Jorge Jesus' team won't be improved by the absence of Oscar Cardozo, the Paraguay striker who has scored 22 in 46 European games as an Eagle.

Tito Vilanova has injury worries of his own, but the return of Andres Iniesta - and perhaps Carles Puyol - will strengthen the side that sneaked past Sevilla 3-2 on Saturday night.

There's Messi too, though it's worth noting he might be a bit overrated in the goals markets: he's odds-on to find the back of the net, but scored in only - only! - 12/24 on the road for Guardiola.

Over/Under Goals

Five in a row at the Estadio da Luz have stayed Under 2.5 Goals. That's in stark contrast to what's been happening in Barca's European away days: for Guardiola, 8/12 group-stage games produced three goals or more.

Over 2.5 Goals would look a stronger bet if Cardozo was playing against a Barca defence that has conceded in each of its first three Liga away games of the new term.

The home side's failure to score at Celtic Park a fortnight ago, when Cardozo was left on the bench for over an hour, is a concern, but the glare of the Opta searchlight falls on Victor Valdes this week: against Spartak Moscow, he let in both of the only two shots on target he faced, and now has just one clean sheet in his last seven European appearances.

Benfica have scored 14 times in five league games this season - ten of which don't belong to Cardozo.

Half Time/Full Time

Barca have seven wins from seven Liga and Champions League games this season. They're getting the end results of a steam-roller, but it's been taking Vilanova's men a bit of time to get going too.

Since they smashed four first-half goals past Real Sociedad in mid-August, 12 of the Catalans' 15 goals have come after half-time. The Draw/Barcelona double-result has paid out as many times as the more obvious Barcelona/Barcelona and rates a bet this week at 5.39/2.

Asian Handicap

Benfica have lost six times in 25 Champions League outings at the Estadio da Luz (including qualifiers). The margin of defeat has never been more than a single goal and five of the six finished 1-0 to the visitors.

It's a scoreline that contains fewer goals than many expect for Tuesday night and is out at 9.08/1 in the Correct Score market.

More simply, if the record suggests to you that Benfica are not going to go down easily, you should be able to give them a 1.5-goal start on the Asian Handicap at around 1.68/13.

Best Bet
Back Draw/Barcelona @ 5.39/2