Good for two goals against Uruguay? We hope so
In the very early hours of Saturday morning Argentina host Uruguay in a crucial World Cup Qualifier. Ed Malyon previews the action...
Argentina v Uruguay - 01:00 (Saturday)
The oldest international football rivalry outside the British Isles is renewed tonight as Uruguay visit neighbouring Argentina in a key World Cup qualifier.
The Uruguayan capital Montevideo is just a small hop across the Rio de la Plata to Buenos Aires, but the Argentines have decided to give their Rioplatense chums a bit of a longer trip by scheduling the game for the western city of Mendoza, some 1500km further away.
This handily situates the Argentina squad very close to Santiago for their Tuesday night clash with Chile, but it will also serve to reduce the visiting support and mildly inconvenience the Uruguayans.
Uruguay boss Oscar Washington Tabarez is one of the finest managers in international football, but since winning the Copa America in Argentina last July things have not been plain-sailing for the man they call 'the maestro'.
The senior side has only won one from their last seven fixtures, and his Olympic squad woefully underperformed in London with a strong, promising squad.
The last international break was a particularly dark time for the Celeste, with a 4-0 mauling at the hands of Colombia deeply hurting the Uruguayan public, but perhaps even worse was a 1-1 draw to Ecuador four days later - the first time they've ever dropped points to the Tri on home soil at a silenced Centenario.
Despite a disappointing draw in Lima last time out, Argentina are going pretty well under Alejandro Sabella as he seems to have done what his predecessors couldn't do and settled on an effective system.
While he has stated that he likes his squads to be tactically flexible, the current shape is a lopsided 4-3-3 that is spearheaded by one of the most outrageously impressive attacking tridents in world football in the shape of Sergio Aguero, Gonzalo Higuan and Lionel Messi.
The defence is the weakest part of Sabella's side, but has looked a bit more assured in recent fixtures even though he continues to resist the temptation to drop Javier Mascherano into the backline.
For many years, Uruguay's first eleven was pretty much a given, and they have used the fewest players in qualifying of any of the competing nations so far. This weekend however they are missing key players in Diego Perez and Alvaro Pereira, and there are still serious question marks over Edinson Cavani's performances in the national team and Diego Forln's career is well in its twilight years.
Match Odds
Argentina should win this one, but it is hard to see justification for a price as short as the 1.491/2 on offer. There is little support for backing Uruguay either, even if they are a monstrous 8.07/1 to win - a price unthinkable only a year ago.
However the Argentine front three look too hot to handle, even for Tabarez' notoriously well-organised defence, and the best way to back the hosts seems to be -1 on the Asian Handicap at 1.845/6.
Goals
Uruguay's games average the most goals in the entire CONMEBOL qualifying group - a stat significantly aided by the aforementioned 4-0 humiliation in Barranquilla last month.
The senior Argentine national team has only kept one clean sheet in its last eleven games though, and with Luis Suarez' phenomenal scoring record at international level the both teams to score could be worth consideration at 1.855/6.
Miscellaneous
Messi's run of goals in international football simply can't be ignored, and with 10 goals in his last seven internationals, including two hat-tricks, he is worth a look at 1.75/7 to score and 4.03/1 for a brace.
The Barcelona star has been outscored in qualifying by his Real Madrid compatriot however, and with one more goal to his name in their campaign thus far, perhaps Gonzalo Higuan represents the better value at 2.26/5.
Recommended Bets
Best bet: Argentina (-1) on the Asian Handicap @ 1.845/6
Messi to score two goals @ 4.03/1
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