воскресенье, 2 сентября 2012 г.

US Open Tips: Robson to push Stosur all the way

Sean fancies Laura to win with a 4.5 game start
Laura Robson is back in action today and Sean Calvert believes the Brit can give Sam Stosur a very tough test at Flushing Meadows; backing Robson on the handicap being a good bet...
It was another middling day of betting at the US Open on Saturday, with one comfortable winner and one losing wager.
The day's play at Flushing Meadows began in perfect fashion when Agnieszka Radwanska defeated Jelena Jankovic in straight sets to bring my opening bet of the day in.
Almost as soon as Aga had seen off JJ it was time for Andy Murray to sample the stifling, hot conditions on Louis Armstrong Court as he took on Feliciano Lopez.
And a combination of the heat, humidity and a performance of rare quality from Lopez meant that Murray was nowhere near the handicap mark and was fortunate to take a 2-0 lead after Lopez suffered some bad calls and blew a lead in the second set tie breaker.
Then we saw what Virginia Wade would no doubt refer to as a 'drama queen' performance from the Scot as he played dead for a long time before miraculously coming back to life to take the fourth set breaker and the match.
It feels strange to write this, but there's another Brit in action on Sunday, as tournament sensation Laura Robson takes on her third straight major winner when she plays Sam Stosur in the final match on Louis Armstrong. And make no mistake about it Robson once again is in with a shot against the defending champion.
Left handers tend to be able to handle Sam's kick serve better, plus we all know how nervous Stosur can get when she's expected to win a big match.
It's obviously a big ask for Laura to beat another Slam winner, but if anything this match is perhaps easier on paper than Li Na or Kim Clijsters and if she can reproduce the level of those performances she could win this.
We've been successful so far by erring on the side of caution with Laura, as you can't realistically expect an 18-year-old who's just had the best few days of her career to keep producing the same level time after time, so the handicap looks good again.
There's not much market confidence in the shaky Aussie who trades around 1.384/11 and the Brit should be able to push her with a 4.5 game start, which is my bet at 1.855/6.
On the men's side today it's worth backing Juan Martin Del Potro to perform a demolition job on poor Leonardo Mayer, who's just out of hospital.
After his clash with Tommy Robredo, Mayer was so dehydrated that he had to go to A&E and he withdrew from his doubles after just a few games yesterday, so he'll be happy to be scheduled for the heat of lunchtime today.
The Argentine pair are meeting for the first time today and even if Mayer has recovered I can't see him winning even with an 8.5 games start on the handicap.
He doesn't have the firepower to trouble Delpo, who hopefully will get out of the habit of falling asleep mid-match as he did against Ryan Harrison and Florent Serra and Mayer might find himself longing for the comfort of the locker room after a couple of sets of this match.
Recommended Bets
Back Robson +4.5 games to beat Stosur at 1.855/6
Back Del Potro -8.5 games to beat Mayer at 1.9210/11
Follow Sean on Twitter @seancalvert1

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