Premier League Stats: Improving Newcastle continue to be over-priced

Pardew's Newcastle are still on the up

Andrew Atherley provides us with all the stats that show Newcastle are still improving under Alan Pardew, and why we should profit whilst the Magpies continue to be under-rated...

What more do people want of Alan Pardew and Newcastle before being convinced they're the real deal? It's a fair question, given that many pundits have cast doubt on Newcastle's ability to repeat last season's success even though Pardew managed to hang on to his top performers during the summer transfer window and on form the team is still improving.

Anyone who was convinced about Newcastle last season would have made money and it's likely there is more profit to come for those who keep Pardew's team on side. A good opportunity to do that arises on Saturday when Newcastle visit bottom club Reading, who are still looking for their first win.

The 'still improving' point seems to have been lost on most pundits, yet it's true. At the halfway point of last season, Newcastle were a surprise seventh in the table with only the Premier League's big six above them. Pardew's team had 30 points at that stage but in the second half of the season they added another 35 points, which took them past Chelsea and Liverpool into a final position of fifth.

If their points graph had gone in the opposite direction last season, there might have been grounds for believing they would not be able to challenge for the top six again, but the evidence points towards a positive assessment of their capabilities.

A longer-term perspective, right back to the start of Pardew's reign in December 2010, provides further support for the view that they are still improving. Pardew has been in charge for 65 Premier League games, accumulating 100 points at an average of 1.54 points per game (enough to finish the season on 58 points).

But a breakdown of those matches - into five units of 13 games - shows the progress made by Pardew's team. Newcastle took 17 points in their first 13 games under Pardew and the subsequent 13-game totals have been 18, 19, 23 and 23. In other words, they have not taken a single step backwards during Pardew's reign.

Based on their points average in the last two sets of 13 games, Newcastle would finish on 67 points - two points better than last season - and it's difficult to see on what basis the pundits can argue that Newcastle are not capable of repeating last season's fifth place.

Yet, even now, Newcastle are not priced up like a top team. They are 2.568/5 against Reading on Saturday, which looks good value in view of the fact that Reading seem set to be among the strugglers all season.

Last season Newcastle had the fourth-best record in the Premier League against bottom-half teams, winning 13 and losing only two out of 20 (on the road their record in that category was six wins, two draws and two defeats - better than every team apart from the two Manchester clubs).

Saturday's trip is Newcastle's first of the season against a team currently in the bottom half and their long-term form under Pardew makes them look hard to beat. Until there is any evidence to the contrary, they are a solid team to back on the Asian handicap in this type of match-up. On Saturday they are 1.794/5 off -0 on the Asian handicap.

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Manchester United v Tottenham

United have won 17 out of 22 since their last league defeat by Tottenham, with the last six wins all coming by two goals or more

Recommended Bets

Newcastle off -0 on Asian handicap v Reading @ 1.794/5
Man United off -1 on Asian handicap v Tottenham @ 2.01/1