среда, 26 сентября 2012 г.

In-Running Week: Stone and Crest still opposable in the run

Stonecrabstomorrow regularly trades at short odds in-running

Neil Munro adds a few more horses to his In-Running database as well as telling us about the two that traded at 1.01 in the run last week before going on to lose...

As well as trading I still like to do some old fashioned punting, and when doing that I always like to find an angle. For instance a trainer who does well with first time headgear, or a horse who has won in a certain month, maybe a jockey who is better over a certain distance. You get the idea. But this also comes into play with in-running trading and it came to its height the other Monday at Brighton.

In the second to last race on the card over seven furlongs Stonecrabstomorrow was outpaced early on but came travelling supremely well a furlong out. At that point he traded at 1.011/100 but had maybe got to the front too early and Malekat Jamal came back to win the race. Thirty minutes later we had a sprint handicap where Whitecrest travelled in a similar way but she was delivered right on the line with Mother Jones side by side. Whitecrest has been beaten right on the line but traded at... yes you've guessed it, 1.011/100.

So what is the angle with these two? Well overall their in-running profiles are not strong but at Brighton they are play horses. Sorry for telling you this information at the back end of the turf season but remember it for next year. Whitecrest has ran at Brighton three times, finished second every time, but traded in the run at 1.222/9, 1.618/13 and 1.011/100. Stonecrabstomorrow has traded at half his BSP in 13 times in 15 runs and has gone onto win four times.

When running at Brighton back Stonecrabstomorrow pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at the matched price with a further low offer to green up the book.

When running at Brighton back Whitecrest pre-race at BSP and then lay out all your potential winnings at odds-on.

Other interesting horses this last week include.

Kaafel

Charlie Hills three year old colt will have been expected to be able to follow up his maiden win at Haydock when moving into handicap company off a mark in the early 80's but a couple of factors have come into play. Firstly, two of the three runs since Kaafel's maiden win have been over 10 furlongs, and I am not sure he sees that out yet, but more importantly he does find less than expected over any trip, and has gone out like a light at times.

Back Kaafel pre-race at BSP and then lay out your stake at the matched price. Then put up some offers at various odds-on marks to have the field winning good money for you.

Misplaced Fortune

Nigel Tinkler's seven-year-old is a game old mare and she showed it when winning at Pontefract recently. That was off a mark of 90 and the handicapper has raised her to 94 which will be tough to win off. But because of that tenacity she can still compete and in-running she ticks a couple of boxes. Misplaced Fortune tends to be ridden patiently out the back which means she has traded more than double her BSP in the run five times in seven wins. But she also travels well as she comes into the race and has traded half her BSP 54% of the time in defeat.

Back half your stake on Misplaced Fortune pre-race at BSP and the other half at double the BSP in the run. Then lay out your combined stake at the matched price and a further low offer to green up the book.

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