пятница, 28 сентября 2012 г.

The Championship Previews: Tykes to continue Ipswichs miserable run

Barnsley boss Keith HIll
Another full programme of Championship action for Mike Norman to mull over, and our man believes opposing out-of-form teams is the key to success in this division...
Barnsley 2.427/5 v Ipswich 3.1511/5; The Draw 3.613/5
You'll be hard pushed to make a profit over a season in the Championship if you concentrate on backing in-form teams only. Few clubs go on long winning runs; the occasional draw or loss is always thrown in to upset the applecart - usually when you've lumped on the 'in-form' club to record a resounding victory.
I'm not against backing in-form sides as regular readers will know, but the key to this division is opposing out-of-form clubs. It's much easier to go on a winless run than it is to go on a run of unbeaten games, as the likes of Ipswich and Peterborough are proving.
The Tractor Boys have taken just one point from the last 15 available; their last two away games resulting in no goals scored and eight conceded. In fact scoring goals has been Ipswich's problem; Michael Chopra and Jason Scotland have just three goals between them this term and no-one from other positions is helping out. Paul Jewell desperately needs a win but he'll do very well to get it at Oakwell.
Barnsley are unbeaten on home soil this term, recording two 1-0 wins and a terrific draw with Blackpool. Last week Keith Hill's men put in an incredible performance to beat Birmingham 5-0 away from home with Craig Davies scoring four.
The Tykes - unbeaten at home remember - will be brimming with confidence against a side that can't win for love or money at present. The 2.427/5 about a home win looks outstanding value. We'll see.
Recommended Bet: Back Barnsley to win @ 2.427/5 (Best Bet)
Huddersfield 2.1211/10 v Watford 3.7511/4; The Draw 3.711/4
Another club brimming with confidence must be Huddersfield. That 3-1 away win at Blackpool would have been the performance of the week in any normal week, but Barnsley's thrashing of Birmingham at St Andrews will probably win that honour. I wouldn't like to be on the judging panel that's for sure.
But it's not just because the Terriers are in-form that I'm making them a selection, it's that 'oppose out-of-form sides' factor again. And few clubs are in worse form than Watford right now. Gianfranco Zola's men have taken just one point from the last 10 available, and on their last two away trips they've conceded seven goals.
I believe the Hornets will develop into a decent side as the season progresses, but right now they're a club in transition, and with so many new players in the squad they are just taking their time to find their feet. By all accounts they look quite good going forward, but look awful at the back. That's not good news when you're just about to face a side who scored three at high-flying Blackpool and sit second in the table.
Simon Grayson's men are unbeaten at home this term with just the one goal conceded. I'm backing them to win again before Watford start getting their act together.
Recommended Bet: Back Huddersfield to win @ 2.26/5
Hull 1.4740/85 v Peterborough 9.08/1; The Draw 4.67/2
Seven defeats out of seven means Peterborough are the only club in the top four divisions without a single point to their name; and now they face the side that I've been waxing lyrical over in the last few weeks.
Hull's recent good form came to a (hopefully) temporary halt last Sunday when they lost away to Leicester, but they are three from three on home soil this term including a win over league leaders Brighton. Prior to last week's setback they scored 10 goals in three games, seven of those being scored before half-time, so I guess you can see where I'm leading you to here.
Posh simply can't keep a clean sheet and their confidence must be shattered, so playing away to a free-scoring side that I believe will finish high-up this season then there's only one outcome for me. Odds of 1.4740/85 for a home victory are more than fair, but the 2.26/5 about Hull HT/Hull FT will net us a bigger profit.
Recommended Bet: Back Hull to win @ 4.03/1
Season P/L (1pt each bet, 2pts Best Bet)
Wagered: 28 pts
Returned: 43.44 pts
P/L + 15.44 pts

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