How many matches will go to the 18th hole at Medinah?
Like many, Mike Norman fully expects this year's Ryder Cup to be a close run affair, and that means many matches should go down to the final two holes at Medinah...
Drama... that's what we want. There's arguably nothing more dramatic in sport than a finely poised Ryder Cup match going down the last few holes.
And with USA and Europe so evenly matched ahead of this week's Ryder Cup, the Medinah Country Club's 17th and 18th holes should see plenty of action between Friday morning and Sunday evening.
Luckily for us, Betfair have opened two markets - Total Matches down the 18th, and Total Matches down the 17th - so we can have a wager on our judgement. Both markets are Under or Over options, and for this particular Ryder Cup lover it's Overs all the way for me.
Total Matches down the 18th
The market has Under 10.5 Matches available to back at a shade of odds-on at 1.9420/21, with Over 10.5 Matches the slight outsider at 2.0421/20, but as the last five Ryder Cup's show, there has always been at least 10 matches go down the 18th hole.
2010 - 10 Matches
2008 - 10 Matches
2006 - 12 Matches
2004 - 11 Matches
2002 - 13 Matches
Using some simple statistical analysis, from the last 140 Ryder Cup matches, a total of 56 of them went down to the final hole at an average of 11.2 matches per Ryder Cup. True, that average is only just over the 10.5 allowed here but it suggests that it's very unlikely that we'll see an unusual low amount of matches going down the 18th this year.
Even when Europe thrashed USA at both Oakland Hills (2004) and the K Club (2006) at least 11 matches went to the final hole on both occasions. The reason being is that the Ryder Cup brings together 24 of the best golfers on the planet and there's very little to split the Europeans and Americans nowadays.
Few matches are ever won by large margins, and with the 2012 Ryder Cup looking to be one of the most evenly balanced renewals in a long time - on paper at least - then I fully expect the Overs to be landed in this market.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 10.5 Matches @ 2.0421/20
Total Matches down the 17th
The market here is almost identical to the above, and again, I believe it is slightly wrong. Under 16.5 Matches is available to back at 1.9210/11 with Over 16.5 Matches trading at 2.0421/20, but as the last five Ryder Cup's show, Overs paid out three times.
2010 - 16 Matches
2008 - 18 Matches
2006 - 17 Matches
2004 - 13 Matches
2002 - 20 Matches
From the 140 matches played since 2002, 84 of them went to the 17th hole at least at an average of 16.8 per Ryder Cup. Again, this average is only just over the 16.5 allowed for Overs to collect here, but crucially it is over and not under.
In summary then, using the last five Ryder Cup's as a guide, three of them would have paid out on Overs in both markets, and the average amount of matches to go down the 17th and 18th holes is higher than the Betfair mark set for this year's renewal. Yet Unders is odds-on in both markets, Overs is odds against.
Recommended Bet: Back Over 16.5 Matches @ 2.0421/20
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