четверг, 27 сентября 2012 г.

Jonathan Wilson: Germany Euro flops looking good at Bayern

Bayern are looking good again

Jonathan Wilson tells us why the Bundesliga isn't as competitive as many imagine, especially when Bayern are on song, and why Germany's top club are looking very strong this season...

It often seems that fans from other countries see the Bundesliga as some kind of paradise. In the sense that crowds are vast, ticket prices are low (Borussia Dortmund fans walked out 10 minutes into last Saturday's 3-2 defeat at Hamburg in protest at being charged as much as €19), and you can have a beer while watching the game, maybe it is.

But the fairly widely held notion that the Bundesliga is more competitive than other major leagues is nonsense - or, at least, it requires an explanation of what competitive means.

In the last decade there have been five different Bundesliga champions, a roll of honour that includes Wolfsburg. That a team so unfashionable can win the league is remarkable and that should be celebrated. The Premier League in the same period has had four champions, Serie A and la Liga have each had three.

In that regard the Bundesliga is more competitive. But look at how many titles the most successful team in those four countries have won in the past decade: Manchester United have won the title five times. Internazionale have won the title five times. Barcelona have won the title five times. And, yes, Bayern Munich have won the title five times.

Actually, what is happening in Germany is just a different form of uncompetitiveness: essentially, if Bayern fire, they win the league. If they don't, then there are a number of other sides who could step up. Perhaps last season, when Dortmund lost just three matches on their way to the title, suggests things are changing but this season has begun with a mighty show of Bayern strength.

Bayern beat Dortmund in the Super Cup and they've been imperious in the league so far, scoring 17 and conceding two in winning all five league matches so far. With second-placed Eintracht (3.613/5 to win the title without Bayern and Dortmund) dropping their first points in a 3-3 draw with Dortmund on Tuesday, Bayern are two points clear at the top of the table and, perhaps more significantly, nine ahead of the champions. Little wonder they are a prohibitive 1.251/4 to be champions.

What's noticeable is how much better many of Germany's disappointments from the Euros look while playing for Bayern.

Bastian Schweinsteiger's indifferent tournament was in part down to his lack of match fitness as he returned from injury but he also struggled to reforge his understanding with Sami Khedira. At the World Cup, the two were dominant in central midfield because Khedira sat just in front of the back four, giving Schweinsteiger protection to get forward. Since moving to Madrid, though, Khedira has become a more rounded, more complete player and he now likes to get forward - as was seen, for instance, with his goal against Greece in the quarter-final of the Euros.

The problem with that, though, is that Germany suffer their own version of the Lampard-Gerrard dilemma. At club level they would probably have time to work out an understanding of who goes when; at international level it is much more difficult.

The result was that Germany regularly left their back four unprotected, which is what gave Mario Balotelli and Antonio Cassano such space in the semi-final - and seems to have induced a lasting neurosis in Dortmund's Mats Hummels. At Bayern, with the diligent Luis Gustavo alongside him, Schweinsteiger looks back to something approaching his best.

The signing of Mario Mandzukic (3.052/1 to be top-scorer), mobile, physical and intelligent, gives them more options than Mario Gomez as a centre-forward. The creative hub is Toni Kroos, operating just behind him, regularly drifting wide to facilitate Thomas Muller's drifts into the centre.

Their effectiveness, plus the arrival of Xherdan Shaqiri, has reduced Bayern's reliance on Arjen Robben and Franck Ribery. There is balance, depth and variety to Bayern's attacking options and, if the indifferent early-season form of so many of Europe's other grandees is anything to go by, that could make them serious challengers for the Champions League; 10.09/1 may seem a little short but, given their present form, they could easily come in offering an opportunity to lay come the last 16 or quarter-finals.

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