Ryan Moore: My thoughts on Fridays racing at Newmarket

Ryan fancies Trumpet Major in the Group 2 race
There's an earlier start to Newmarket's bumper eight-race card on day two of the Cesarewitch meeting and Ryan Moore has given his exclusive thoughts to Betfair...
13:15 Newmarket
This looks a very tight race, with Annie's Fortune and Califante probably setting the form standard but with a lot of improvers queuing up close behind. Annie Fortune's Prestige fourth makes her the one to beat but against that you have progressive sorts like easy York nursery winner Waterway Run (though that only came off a mark of 78) and Godolphin's wide margin Newcastle winner Power Of Light. I have no strong opinion on the race, in truth.
13:45 Newmarket
Dank is progressive and I give her a decent chance in here. The key to her is quick ground and when I rode work on racecourse side yesterday it was good ground, so she should be fine if there is no more rain. On the bare form of her Sandown win last time she has a bit to find with some of these, but she did it nicely there and is in real good order at home. Thistle Bird did well to see off Fulbright at Haydock and rates a big danger, and everyone saw how unlucky Valencha was at Doncaster.
14:20 Newmarket
I suppose this revolves around how you rate Most Improved. He has always been the subject of a lot of hype and he appeared to justify the talk when winning the St James's Palace Stakes, and this doesn't look the strongest of Group 2 races. But the problem is that Ascot race hasn't worked out at all well, he carries a Group 1 penalty and he ran badly in the Marois last time. If he doesn't fire, then this is up for grabs. They are all within a few pounds of each other on official marks, and have pluses and negatives against them, but if forced to go for one it would be Trumpet Major. It could have been the soft ground that saw him run well below par behind Premio Loco last time but he won the Craven for me over this course and distance and had earlier dead-heated in a Group 3 at Goodwood. He could be the answer to a very tricky race to call. I wouldn't rule out our Tazahum though, as he is going the right way and possibly has a more progressive profile than some of these.
14:55 Newmarket
This has got be to be one of the poorest Fillies Mile I can remember, probably in terms of both class and depth. But I would have thought Certify would be up to winning this. Her Sweet Solera win has obviously been franked by the runner-up Sky Lantern and I would be inclined to take a positive view of her win in the May Hill, where she was odds-on but had to battle for a narrow win. The second horse could be very decent - they pulled eight lengths clear of the third after all - and I thought Certify did well to win as Purr Along got first jump on her at Doncaster. But would I back Certify here at what looks sure to be a short price? Probably not. There isn't too much between her and Prestige winner Ollie Olga on a line through Sky Lantern and there are some other progressive horses in here, albeit ones with a fair bit to find on form. Winsili didn't get the run of the race when second at Ascot and could prove the best of the others.
15:25 Newmarket
The three to have raced all ran promisingly enough first time up but you would be surprised if one of the newcomers didn't take this. I haven't heard any gossip about them - I will have to start getting out more - but I can tell you that both our horses are quite decent. The beautifully bred Vital Evidence, out of the Group 1-winning Promising Lead, may be the better long-term prospect but it could be that the New Approach colt King's Request is the more forward today. But you can see for yourself that there are no end of other newcomers from the top yards in here, and who knows how well they have been going? Unfortunately for you, not me.
16:00 Newmarket
This listed race features horses that have basically proved disappointing, and others who have to improve to win this if those disappointing horses come back to form. So it doesn't make a lot of appeal. If that makes sense. It is a very difficult race to have a strong view about but the ex Aussie horse Retrieve ran well enough off a mark of 107 in a Goodwood handicap in July and may prove best, though that is very much a token suggestion.
16:35 Newmarket
This looks a bit of a nightmare race to try and solve. Where do you start? Most of these are well treated on bits of old form and then you have the ones with more recent form and more obvious winning chances such as Jo'Burg. That horse carries only a 4lb penalty for an emphatic win at Redcar last time and I seem to remember him running a fair race in the Cambridgeshire proper (7th) a couple of years ago. And if you are looking for more of an outsider perhaps Askaud could go well at a price. But it looks pretty impossible doesn't it, and I am not going to tell you otherwise.
17:10 Newmarket
I think the winning owner gets a trophy worth 6,000 here and the jockeys get nothing. Call me mercenary or selfish or whatever, but I think I would probably get in the car, go home and miss the traffic rather than ride in this race. However, Ed has been telling me for a while that The Tiger will win this. And, if nothing else, that would at least be a topical winner with the Ryder Cup starting.
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